A Mumbai-based group of weather enthusiasts, who run the popular blog called "Vagaries of Weather" have predicted that monsoons could hit the city by June 14, while pre-monsoon showers are likely to begin from June 5.
Mahalaxmi-based Rajesh Kapadia, who has been in the field of weather forecasting for over three decades now, said that these forecasts are based on the current weather conditions and the fact that the Arabian sea branch of monsoon is likely to be delayed.
He explained that monsoon winds the from southern end progress in two branches — Arabian sea branch, which brings rains towards the west coast and the Bay of Bengal branch, which brings rains towards the east coast.
"As per the current scenario, the Arabian sea branch is weaker as cross equatorial winds on the south west side is still to gather momentum, which could cause delay in arrival of monsoons on the western side. However, the Bay of Bengal branch looks strong and monsoon could reach south Andamans by May 20-21, which will be the first monsoon rains for the country," he said adding that these predictions could also change in the days to come.
The usual date for the arrival of monsoon in the city, as per the IMD, is June 10. In 2018, it arrived on June 9 — a day earlier, while in 2017, it was delayed by two days and it was late by 10 days in 2016.
There has been a huge variation in the onset dates of monsoon months in India since 1971 and there have only been three occasions when monsoon arrived on June 1. These years were 1980, 2000, and 2013.
As per the records, the earliest arrival of monsoon was on May 18, 2004, while the latest arrival was on June 18, 1972.
However, Vidarbha is likely to be under the grip of a severe heat wave for the next few days. Mumbaikars too would be left sweating and in discomfort. The city is expected to remain humid and witness high minimum temperatures.
As per the IMD, the Vidarbha region could see temperatures around 45 degree to 47 degree Celsius and heat wave conditions are likely to occur at isolated places until May 18.
For the next four days, the city will remain partly cloudy, especially at night and will experience humid conditions, the IMD said.
"The city will see maximum temperatures of around 34 degree Celsius while the minimum would be around 26 degree Celsius leaving people in discomfort," said Kapadia.
Fact-Finding
- Experts said these forecasts are based on the current weather conditions and the fact that the Arabian sea branch of monsoons is likely to be somewhat delayed
- They also said the predictions could also change in the days to come
