Win in Marathwada, Vidharba looks bleak for Shiv Sena: Insiders

Will the Shiv Sena's u-turn on it's alliance with the BJP and incumbency against its elected representatives cost it a handful of seats in the Lok Sabha polls? Though counting is scheduled only on May 23, senior Shiv Sena leaders admit the party may stand to lose in some seats in areas like Marathwada and Vidarbha, with the contests in Mumbai and neighbouring areas expected to be close.

Already, a blame-game between the Shiv Sena and BJP has erupted, with at least one Shiv Sena candidate, Chandrakant Khaire openly attacking BJP state unit president Raosaheb Danve Patil for surreptitiously campaigning for his son-in-law—Sena rebel and Kannad MLA Harshavardhan Jadhav.

Khaire, who is vying for a fifth successive term in the Lok Sabha, was locked in a contest with Jadhav, Subhash Zhambad (Congress) and Imtiaz Jaleel (AIMIM). Sena leaders admit the presence of three Hindu candidates may throw up a surprise victor in the city which sees strong communal polarisation.

A senior Shiv Sena said the party could be on a weak footing in Buldhana (Prataprao Jadhav), Amravati (Anandrao Adsul), Ramtek (Krupal Tumane), Yavatmal- Washim (Bhavana Gawli), Parbhani (Sanjay (Bandu) Jadhav), Aurangabad (Chandrakant Khaire), Raigad (Anant Geete), Shirur (Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil) and Palghar (Rajendra Gavit).

However, the Sena expects their nominees Sanjay Mandlik and Hemant Patil to win from Kolhapur and Hingoli against incumbent NCP MP Dhananjay (Munna) Mahadik and Subhash Wankhede (Congress).

The leader admitted a factors that may have hurt the party could be its volte-face on its alliance with the BJP. In January 2018, the Shiv Sena resolved to contest all future elections alone, sans an alliance with the BJP, and come to power. However, despite repeatedly attacking the BJP, the Sena continued to be part of BJP-led regimes in the state and Centre. In an anti-climax, Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray and BJP national president Amit Shah sealed a formal tie-up for the Lok Sabha and state assembly polls.

The Sena leader said another factor that could have gone against some candidates vying for multiple terms was anti-incumbency for the candidate and the state government.

Another senior Shiv Sena functionary admitted that the alliance with the BJP was a Catch-22 situation. "We stood to lose even if we allied with the BJP or if we did not. We would have lost seats even if we fought alone, but the impact would have been more severe for the BJP, which has more stakes in the Lok Sabha. However, these losses could have affected our performance in the state assembly polls," the leader said.

Shiv Sena sources claim that the NCP may stand to benefit from the party's electoral setbacks, in seats like Parbhani, Shirur, Raigad, Buldhana and Amravati. The Sena source said while the NCP could capture their "political space," the rival Raj Thackeray-led MNS, which had launched a surrogate campaign for the Congress-NCP, could fill-in the "perception space."