Just hours after Ukraine used US-supplied long-range missiles to hit a Russian target for the first time, Vladimir Putin signed a new nuclear policy for Russia. This new policy makes it easier for Moscow to use nuclear weapons, allowing them to respond with nukes even if they are attacked with non-nuclear, conventional weapons.
The timing of this new policy is no coincidence. Russia has repeatedly warned that Ukraine using US long-range missiles could lead to a strong reaction. They've also hinted at the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Will this actually happen? There are two possible ways to think about it, both focused on one key point: In two months, Joe Biden will hand over power to Donald Trump, who has promised to end the war in Ukraine as part of his campaign.
One way of thinking is that Putin might take advantage of the next two months to create chaos, knowing that the rising tensions will increase pressure on Trump to quickly negotiate a peace deal once he becomes president.
The other view is: If things are going well, don’t make drastic moves. Putin is currently making progress in eastern Ukraine, and with North Korean fighters helping to push back Ukrainian forces in the Russian border region of Kursk, which Ukraine has held since August, he may not feel the need to escalate further.
Why risk the global outrage that would come from using nuclear weapons right now? It might make more sense for Putin to respond with "hybrid warfare" instead. This could involve supporting groups that are against the U.S. in other parts of the world or disrupting key infrastructure in Europe. For example, the recent unexplained damage to two communication cables in the Baltic Sea shows how vulnerable such systems can be. In other words, Putin has many ways to cause chaos without resorting to nuclear weapons.
Ukraine's strategy could be a game-changer. If Kyiv manages to significantly weaken Russia's military power, it might influence Moscow's decisions. Both sides likely view the next two months as a crucial period to wrap up this phase of the conflict. The push to gain an advantage is in full swing.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
