Forecasting volcanic eruptions is a very difficult task compared to other weather events. Scientists have been trying for a long time to create such a system that can detect the event before the occurrence. This can save lives and property from the heavy destructions caused by volcanoes. The impact can be reduced if there is a warning beforehand.
Now, geological scientists have developed a system to forecast volcanic eruptions (Volcano Forecasting System). The new study describes in detail how the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galapagos Island in the Pacific Ocean was predicted to be correct five months ago. The study is published in the journal Science Advances, where researchers have detailed the system that successfully predicted the volcano.
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The need for a system to accurately predict volcanic eruptions has been there since the beginning. The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano eruption, in January this year, once again made the need felt for this system. The vibration of this volcano was felt in space and the lives of millions of people were affected.
Successful test done four years ago
The study, published in the journal Science Advances, claims that the team of researchers is on the verge of developing an alert system which will tell beforehand when a volcano is going to erupt. In this paper, the team elaborated that it was through this mechanism that they predicted the eruption of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galapagos Island in 2018.
Numerical model
Researchers at the University of Illinois had predicted the eruption with a margin of only one day. For this, they used High Performance Computing Data Assimilation. Along with this, they also used the data of the InSAR satellite along with these data in this numerical models.
Biggest challenge
Researchers had predicted this volcano five months in advance. The researchers said in their paper that the most challenging task in volcanology is to develop quantitative models to investigate the processes that lead to volcanic eruptions and to use those models to predict eruptions.
Studying the Sierra Negra volcano
In this study, the researchers elaborated that these patterns are capable of deciphering field observations and monitoring the evolution of magma systems. Sierra Negra is considered one of the largest volcanoes of the Galapagos Island in terms of volume. There have been at least seven emissions since 1911.
About every 15 years, there has been an eruption in it. This time too the instruments had once again started catching signs of vibration.
Use of data
These signs showed that volcanic activity has intensified below the surface. The researchers used the same weather forecasting tools and combined the observed data with simulation forecasting data from the volcanoes on-the-ground activity. The team then used satellite and radar images to observe the activity of magma beneath the volcano's surface.
Researchers used the information of all these data and pictures to make predictions for the future through supercomputers. The researchers, based on the activity of the magma system below the surface, predicted in early 2018 that the volcano would erupt in the Sierra Negra between June 25 and July 5 of the same year, which erupted on June 26.
On this basis, the researchers developed a complete system of forecasting.
