India are knock-out kings

If you thought the Indian players are weak-hearted, think again. The numbers and records tell a different story. Faced with a do-or-die, they do rather die. They make rather than break in a crunch game. Believe it or not, the Men in Blue have the best record in the knock-out games among all ICC tournaments.

According to an ICC study, India have 68 per cent of record in the knock-outs, four per cent higher than the four-time world champions Australia. As compared to Australia’s 64.5 per cent record in the knock-out stage, India have 68.75 per cent. As for the number of wins, India have won 11 out of 18 knock-out games in all ICC tournaments, including World Twenty20, as against Australia’s 15 wins in 24 games.

Since the 1975 World Cup, there have been 71 knock-out matches played across all three formats with Australia having played and won more matches than any other team but India have got a higher rate of success. Australia, of course, have been unbeaten since that famous 1999 semifinal against South Africa in Edgbaston which had ended in a tie, knocking out Hansie Cronje’s men from the championship.

“India’s better success rate in the knock-out stage is due to the fact that they play very well when they get accustomed to the conditions. We’re also good at carrying the momentum forward. If they have reached a knock-out stage, that means they have the momentum,” says Dilip Vengsarkar, a former India captain explaining the reason for India’s success in the knock-out round.

So what does the study and these numbers mean? Simple, if India were to reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup — which they are very much expected to do — then, they have a better chance than any other side to win the title. Statistically, at least, they are the favourites.

“India have performed pretty well in knock-out games. Their only losses in such matches were 1987 World Cup semifinal to England, 1996 World Cup semifinal to Sri Lanka, 1998 Champions Trophy semifinal to West Indies, 2000 Champions Trophy final to New Zealand and 2003 World Cup final to Australia. I guess this means that either they win the thing (like 2003 World Cup or 2007 World Twenty20) or they are often eliminated at the first hurdle (like 2007 World Cup),” points out Benedict Bermange, a senior statistician with SKY Sports, who also works for the ICC.

(Note that the tied match is counted as half a win and the two no results are discounted from India and Sri Lanka’s totals of matches played. Those were the final (and replayed final) of ICC Champions Trophy 2002 at Colombo when both matches were abandoned when only one innings had been completed and the trophy was shared.)

The study points out that at the wrong end of the table are South Africa and New Zealand. The Proteas are yet to reach a World Cup final, falling just short in 1992 due to a rain ruling and 1999 due to some erratic running between the wickets. However, they did win the inaugural Champions Trophy way back in 1998 in Dhaka, thanks to five wickets from Jacques Kallis. New Zealand won that trophy the next time around defeating India at Nairobi with Chris Cairns being the star of the show, but apart from that it has been a tale of “always the bridesmaid never the bride” as the Kiwis have frequently fallen at the semifinal stage of world competitions.

Top batsmen in the do-or-die games are, of course, Ricky Ponting, Sourav Ganguly and Sachin Tendulkar. Ponting has played more of these matches than any other player — 17 of them.  And he has scored more runs in these elimination environments than anyone else — 627 at an average of 41.80.  His unbeaten 140 against India in the 2003 WC final, of course, is too difficult to digest for an Indian fan. It could go down as the best ODI innings by the Australian skipper.

The only other players to have scored more than 500 runs in elimination matches are Ganguly and Tendulkar. Ganguly, who quit all forms of the game on Monday, has performed better in these matches with his 580 runs at 82.85 comparing very favourably with the little master’s 526 at 47.81.

It is another Aussie leading the way with the ball. Glenn McGrath was an integral part of three World Cup-winning Australian teams and he always seemed to perform well under pressure, totalling 22 wickets at 22.13 apiece in his 14 matches. He is three ahead of Muttiah Muralitharan who took 19 wickets in his 15 matches including one in the final of the 1996 ICC Cricket World Cup at Lahore when the Sri Lankans memorably upset the Australians. Another Australian in the form of Brett Lee is in the third place with a total of 16 wickets.

So, if those are the players who have excelled under pressure, how about those who have found the going somewhat tougher when fighting for their lives? From the table above which features players who have had at least five innings in such pressure matches, it seems that all-rounders have found it particularly difficult, with Messrs Pollock, McCullum, Botham and Jayasuriya all disappointing with the bat when their countries have needed them the most.