The precarious security and volatile political situation in Pakistan will force the new Obama administration in the US to re think its policy for the region, and shift focus from Afghanistan to ensuring that the Pakistani state does not collapse. A fragmented Pakistan can spell doom not just for the region but the whole world.
Tuesday’s attack on the Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore has signaled the determination of the jihadi forces to strike targets not just in far away tribal areas of the NWP but at every province and city of Pakistan at will. Not even a visiting cricket team is safe in an increasingly violent state. Add to this the political stand-off between.
President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif in a fragile democracy with the all powerful armed forces playing their own games and the country appears to be racing to boiling point.
President Barack Obama has been stressing even during the campaign that the focus of the US war on terror must shift from Iraq to Afghanistan, which was a real threat to America. Stabilising Afghanistan, getting the moderate Taliban into the mainstream lay at the heart of Obama’s policy.
The launching pad of most of the terror strikes in Afghanistan was in the tribal areas bordering Pakistan. The Pakistani army was to help the US in controlling this border.
However things have so far not turned out as planned. The Zardari government with the backing of the army signed a deal in FATA to allow the tribal leaders complete freedom to run the administration.
But now Pakistanis in distress and needs to stabilise. The Obama administration is still in the process of detailing a policy for the region. Indian analysts say the discourse in Washington is missing main point that Pakistan has reached a critical spiral and may collapse or undergo a major transformation into a puritanical state controlled by jihadis. “Does Washington have a plan B,” asks analyst Ajai Sahani.
The US will try to work out a political deal between the PPP and the Muslim League, but that may not last as the jehadi forces are now pushing the envelope. The army can step in to halt the rot. But is General Ashfaq Kayani in control?
According to reports there are fissures in the armed forces too. An army take over is not ruled out in the days to come. A professional army in control of the nuclear weapons is acceptable to the world. But there is the danger of a total transformation as happened in Iran according to Sahani. At some point if the jehadi elements take control, Pakistani army’s rank and file may just switch loyalties.
“There is the risk of the only institution in the country, the army also being supersede. The issue is not just about terrorism or the Swat deal or Afghanistan, the point missing is the collapse of the Pakistani state and the danger of a hostile fundamentalist regime in control of the nuclear button,’’ says Sahani.
