Afghan vote in the balance, Abdullah cancels trip

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's election rival Abdullah Abdullah cancelled a planned trip to India on Saturday, his advisers said, heightening speculation he would pull out of next week's disputed run-off vote.
                                       
Afghanistan has been racked by weeks of political uncertainty after widespread fraud marred the first round, with security another major concern after a resurgent Taliban vowed to disrupt the November 7 run-off vote.
                                       
With Afghanistan's political future hanging in the balance, US President Barack Obama is also weighing whether to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan. Obama met U.S. military leaders in Washington on Friday.
                                       
Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, had been due to leave for India on Saturday for a leadership conference but his aides said he cancelled the trip and would likely hold a media conference in Kabul on Sunday.
                                       
"He is staying because of the election," Abdullah's spokesman Ali Farhad Howaida said. Other aides could not confirm or deny whether Abdullah would outline his plans at Sunday's briefing. "He will give his opinion on the election," said Fazel Sancharaki, another Abdullah spokesman.
                            
Western officials have pointed out that Abdullah has not opened any campaign offices in Afghanistan since the run-off was called last week. Neither candidate has campaigned openly.

"The signs are there. (Abdullah's) not doing any campaigning. Everyone is looking at the two camps and willing them to do some form of accommodation that will avoid a run-off," one Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters.
 
Western diplomats have said privately Abdullah may have overplayed his hand when he gave Karzai an ultimatum last week to sack Afghanistan's top election official and three ministers in a bid to avoid a repeat of the first-round fraud.

That deadlines expires later on Sunday but Karzai has already indicated he would not give in to Abdullah's demand. Abdullah has not said what he would do if the officials were not sacked.

Citing an unidentified Western source it said was close to the Afghan leadership, CNN reported on Friday that talks between Karzai and Abdullah had broken down and that Abdullah, whose support comes mainly from the Tajik north, would likely pull out.
                          
Diplomatic efforts
Neither Karzai nor Abdullah would comment on those meetings but behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to convince them to work together to break the deadlock increased this week.
                                       
The run-off was triggered when a U.N.-led fraud investigation found widespread fraud, mainly in favour of Karzai, had been committed during the Aug. 20 first round.  The United States already has about 70,000 troops in Afghanistan and the decision to send more hinges on whether the Afghan government is seen by US lawmakers and the public as a legitimate and viable partner.
                                       
The White House and the Pentagon have emphasised the need for the Afghan government to reform. Many commentators and Western diplomats believe Karzai will likely win the run-off, adding pressure on Abdullah to withdraw for the sake of stability.
                                       
It would also avoid the mobilisation of thousands of foreign troops that would be needed to help secure polling stations after poor security and Taliban threats cut voter turnout in August.

Karzai's support mainly comes from Pashtuns, Afghanistan's largest ethnic group and the country's traditional rulers, in the south and east where the Taliban-led insurgency is strongest.

The Taliban have called on Afghans to boycott the run-off and have vowed to disrupt the poll, their threat underlined on Wednesday by a suicide attack on a Kabul guest-house used by the United Nations in which five foreign UN staff were killed.  The Islamist militants said the guest-house was targeted because of the United Nations' role in helping organise the vote.

 The fast-approaching onset of Afghanistan's harsh winter and lingering concerns about fraud have further complicated efforts to organise the run-off. Karzai has said he would not automatically declare himself president if Abdullah pulls out but would wait for lawyers and Afghanistan's Supreme Court to make a final ruling.

Afghanistan's constitution does not make clear what should be done if a candidate pulls out of a run-off election.