Al-Qaeda talk sustains extremist fears: experts

LONDON: Simply talking about Al-Qaeda sustains fears of Islamist extremism, experts said after claims the group could stage another "9/11" and Osama bin Laden re-emerged to taunt the West.   

Analysts said the Al-Qaeda chief, in hiding since the September 11, 2001 attacks, was succeeding in "scaring the hell" out of everybody even though his shady and diffuse network is actually relatively weakened.   

"It's (Al-Qaeda's) got an identity that is much stronger than it's ever been and that's largely as a function as how we've begun to talk about it," Tahir Abbas, from the University of Birmingham in west central England, said.   

"By talking about it, by making reference to it, we rarify it and that in a sense gives it the life that other people need it to have in order to buy into it."   

Abbas, a specialist in the study of Islamic radicalisation, was speaking after the sixth anniversary commemorations this week of the September 11 attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people in New York and Washington.   

At the same time, videos appeared showing Al-Qaeda's spiritual head Bin Laden mocking the United States, threatening to escalate the conflict against US troops in Iraq and praising one of the "9/11" hijackers as a "champion".   

The following day, the respected International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London said the Al-Qaeda threat had not diminished and it could still plan and carry out "spectacular" attacks on Western targets.   

The report grabbed headlines but its conclusions were not universally accepted, despite several attacks this week blamed on Al-Qaeda, including the death of key US ally Abdul Sattar Abu Reesha in Iraq.   

At least 20 soldiers were killed in an attack on a military camp in Pakistan and concerns remain about the influence of Al-Qaeda-inspired ideology in north Africa, where there have been suicide bombings, and south-east Asia.   

Bob Ayers, a security analyst at the Chatham House international affairs think-tank, agreed with the IISS assessment: "I have seen nothing to demonstrate that we have interdicted their ability to (carry out attacks)."   

He also supported the view that the West has failed to tackle the root cause of extremism.   

Yet Abbas argued attacks by Islamist extremists remain "limited" in Europe at least, suggesting assessments to the contrary played into the "psychosis of fear" and risked "legitimising the status quo".   

Peter Lehr, a lecturer in terrorism studies at the University of St Andrews in eastern Scotland, agreed, arguing Al-Qaeda footsoldiers were deprived of access to the group's pre-"9/11" expertise and organisation.   

"Al-Qaeda does not have the capability to carry out something very big at the moment. I think they are still learning to live with being dislodged from Afghanistan," he said.   

"Self-motivated", but amateur, jihadist cells under the Al-Qaeda banner now characterised many Islamist extremists, he said.   

But without access to "real Al-Qaeda specialists, Al-Qaeda money, Al-Qaeda logistics, expertise", there is a "high likelihood" such groups will fail, he added.   

Bombs will fail to detonate while attempts to buy large quantities of ingredients such as chemicals will now attract attention from an increasingly vigilant public, police and intelligence services.   

Further afield, much of the Al-Qaeda-attributed violence in the lawless western regions of Pakistan along its border with Afghanistan or in Iraq could be down to tribal rivalries, he added.   

Like Abbas and Lehr, Ayers argued that the West was falling short in the media offensive.   

"The whole of the week was seized by bin Laden," he said. "We reacted to what he said not what President Bush said... By bin Laden coming back on the news, he's seized the initiative and is putting Al-Qaeda back in the spotlight.   

"He's scaring the hell out of everybody and at the same time, he's sending a very clear message to his followers: I'm still here and the spiritual head of the movement is still operating.   

"He's also sending a message to the United States, saying: you can't catch me, can you?"