WASHINGTON, DC: Is Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf on shaky ground? US-based South Asia experts believe that the current judicial and political crisis in Pakistan could put Musharraf in a corner and also change the way US policymakers approach the South Asian country.
Tereshita Schaffer, a former US ambassador to Sri Lanka and the current director of the South Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says the aura of invincibility that Musharraf has enjoyed until now has gone. Schaffer says that it will be important to note if a clear leader of the anti-Musharraf demonstrations emerges. She also believes that the Pakistan president will be able to weather this storm. “Even so, it will leave a mark on his government, and will add to the baggage he is carrying as he governs one of the world’s most difficult countries,” she said.
Lisa Curtis, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a South Asia expert, agrees the current crisis will possibly define Musharraf’s presidency for policymakers. Curtis believes that even if Musharraf holds democratic elections and a new civilian government is voted into power, it will face the same issues that Musharraf is facing now.
“Pakistan is facing a precarious situation in its tribal areas, and just as Musharraf is juggling many balls, any new civilian government will have to do the same. It will also have to rely heavily on the military, just as previous civilian governments have,” she said. Curtis believes that the muted US response to the current crisis is more to preserve the stability in Pakistan than to do with disinterest in the region.
In an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post, however, political commentator Ahmed Rashid calls for Musharraf’s exit. Rashid says that Musharraf is losing control over three key elements that have sustained his rule: The Pakistan Muslim League, a political party supported by the military that is now distancing itself from him; the intelligence agencies who oppose him on foreign policy, the political process and on media issues; and the loss of international support which he had gained after September 11, 2001 for his backing to the US war on terror.
“His best course of action would be to say he is not a candidate for president, hold free and fair elections, allow the return of exiled politicians, restore full political rights and gracefully depart with his legacy, which is considerable, intact. The military can no longer counter the phenomenal growth of Islamic extremism in Pakistan through offensives alone. It is in the interest of the United States to support such as exit strategy.”
In an earlier media interview, South Asia expert and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, Dr Stephen Cohen, said: “The (Pakistani) army needs a staged withdrawal from politics... He (Musharraf) ought to give up the uniform and as the politicians fill the vacuum, withdraw further. This can be a slow process, but it has to begin and
it has to move continuously.”
