China’s perception of itself as an emerging dominant power, coupled with a fragility in its internal economic and political situation, may account for the recent border intrusions into India — and similar “aggressive” posturing against other countries in the region, security analysts tell DNA.
“There are two components to China’s behaviour,” says Andrew Shearer, director of studies at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. “On the one hand, we see an increasingly assertive China that wants other countries to acknowledge its rise as an emerging power. But paradoxically, its behaviour also reflects a fragile internal situation, in particular, a sense of insecurity in China’s political leadership.”
Like India, other countries in the region too have had to deal with Chinese ‘muscle-flexing’. “China has been sending submarines into Japanese waters in what amounts to an act of war,” says China-watcher Gordon Chang. China has also tried to drive the US military out of international waters in East Asia, and has warned oil major Exxon against doing business with Vietnam to extract oil from a disputed area that China claims as its own, he recalls.
China’s stand on the border dispute with India has hardened since 2006, when it publicly claimed sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh, says professor Sandy Gordon at the Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security at the Australian National University.
Rory Medcalf, international security program director at the Lowy Institute, believes that while caution is warranted when dealing with China, “I don’t think there’s anything to gain from focussing solely on the potentially destabilising implications of China’s rise.”
But first, says Shearer, India must lay down a clear framework for relations with China, identifying areas of common interest and also its strategic interests and values that are non-negotiable. “I wouldn’t argue that India should take a needlessly provocative position towards China, but India should send very clear private signals to the Chinese government and put in place publicly a clear framework for the relationship — one where China understands where you’re coming from, where they can work with you and which areas are off-limits.”
