Caretaker Raul Castro keeps Cuba stable

HAVANA: Ten months ago, a camera-shy general stepped out from the shadow of his famous elder brother Fidel Castro to run the Western Hemisphere's only communist state.   

Since then, Raul Castro has changed the style of leadership in Cuba as he tries to encourages debate on how to correct corruption and inefficiency in the state-run economy.   

In contrast to Fidel Castro, who micromanaged Cuban society and kept it on an ideological overdrive with marathon speeches, Raul Castro has delegated authority, let others speak and focused on practical problems, from pricey food to decrepit housing and deficient public transport.   

The younger Castro, who turns 76 on Sunday, is still feared by some Cubans as the enforcer in the early days after Cuba's 1959 revolution and as its defense minister ever since, but he has mellowed over the years.   

After taking over from his ailing brother last July, Raul Castro offered to negotiate with Washington to end hostile relations dating from the start of the Cold War.   

The US government has shown no sign of softening its stance and opposes a succession within the Castro family. On Friday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called it a "transition from one dictatorship to another".   

Yet some experts believe Raul Castro is key to avoiding social upheaval that could trigger a mass exodus across the Florida Straits and turn the island 90 miles off the UScoast into a haven for drug traffickers.   

"It is in the best interests of the United States that Raul provide the orderly beginning to a transition," said Canadian military historian Hal Klepak, an expert on Cuba's armed forces.

"It is already a succession in most senses."   

Fidel Castro has not appeared in public since undergoing stomach surgery last July, although he bounced back into public life two months ago by writing regular columns on world issues from his convalescence quarters.   

They range from US biofuels plans to global warming and British nuclear-powered attack submarines, and most are attacks on his ideological foe, US President George W. Bush.   

Cuba watchers say the restless revolutionary icon is eager to let the world know he is still alive and kicking, but may be cramping his brother's efforts to govern.   

"He won't let go, and that doesn't give his brother much room to move in," a European diplomat in Havana said.   

In an article last week, Castro acknowledged he had spent months being fed intravenously. He said he was eating solids again but gave no indication he planned to resume governing.   

Like most observers, former CIA analyst Brian Latell, who has studied Cuba for years, believes Fidel Castro will not return to power.   

"I believe Raul has the reins of power in his hands, but is loathe to appear to be abandoning or repudiating any of Fidel's traditional orthodoxies," he said.

"The result is inertia that probably will not be sustainable for long."   

"My best guess is that Raul is biding his time, worrying about how he is going to preside over the last and final stage of Fidel's abdication," said Latell, author of the book 'After Fidel'.   

Klepak, a professor of warfare studies at Canada's Royal Military College, believes Raul will defend at all cost Cuba's universal free education and health care, but agricultural reforms, more foreign investment and greater freedom for private businesses are possible.   

To maintain support for one-party rule, Raul Castro must convince Cubans that living standards will improve.   

His hand is seen in recent changes in customs regulations allowing Cubans to bring in auto parts, motors and video equipment, such as previously banned DVD players.   

On Havana's streets, speculation is mounting that Cubans will soon be able to buy cars and cellular telephones, and stay at beach hotels that are now off limits.

"Raul has to deliver on hope," Klepak said.