Decoding Iran’s military potential – a force unreckoned

Iran, the erstwhile kingdom of Persia, had been a center of ancient civilizations and a connecting point between Europe, South Asia, Centra Asia and the Middle East for thousands of years. It was the focal point of trade and a power center for the rest of the world where mighty Persian forces were considered formidable.

 

Unfortunately, the country is in the news again due to its ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States and it is pertinent to understand the Iranian journey over the last five decades. How Iran developed itself to such an extent that in spite of negligible military support from the rest of the world, it has been able to project itself as a power center in the world once again. 

 

When we see Iran from a military lens, we see three phases. The first was before the Iranian revolution in 1979 when Iran was a trusted ally of America, UK and Russia. It used its oil to procure high-end weaponry from these countries and strengthened its stockpiles. The second phase was during the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq war when the country developed its strategies and plans to become a military superpower and lastly, the post war period under the leadership of Ali Khamenei when Iran became a sore in the eyes of the Western world. Today, a strong Iranian military consisting of over a million soldiers is very strong and can pose a serious threat to any country in the world. 

 

The primary objective of Iranian military modernization was to develop a capability where Iran is able to fight and sustain itself against an adversary technologically superior to Iran. Naturally, this adversary was most probably United States. How Iranian military reached such a place in such less time, let us understand that in a few simple points in layman’s language. 

 

1. Re-building of Iranian Military- The primary task before Ali Khamenei after taking over the country was to re-build Iranian military post Iran-Iraq war. The aim behind it was to re-establish Iran as a regional superpower and he got the entire government machinery involved in that. Unfortunately, due to western proximity with “Sunni” dominated Arab world, Iran was sidelined, and it was put under “Proliferation Security Initiatives” floated by United States. Further, western powers were against its involvement in Syria and Yemen where it was supporting the “Shia” dominated groups. Western powers were also against Iranian Nuclear program and as a result, sanctions were put over Tehran and it was barred from buying important military equipment’s from the world which necessitated the development of indigenous military industry in Iran. Today, the local military industry in Iran is one of the largest in the world. 

 

2. Balanced approach in modernization- At the time when Iran-Iraq war ended, Iran was left with the aircrafts& military equipment’s which were bought from US and other western powers prior to 1979. Similarly, its navy had very few large vessels and the Army had limited number of armored vehicles bought from Russia. At the time of modernization, it had to balance out the approach and ensure maintaining its military might. So, to complement the weak air force, it started producing surface to air missiles, short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles, Cruise missiles, artillery, and a large variety of drones. Probably Iran was one of the first countries to use drones in a war when it used them for the first time against Iraq in 1984. Not only this, but Iranians were also the first ones to use ballistic missiles against Iraq in 1985. Similarly, to complement the weak navy, it built large number of speedboats, smaller submarines, missile boats and patrol crafts to dominate the entire Persian Gulf. They know their weakness and hence complemented the gaps with other types of weapon systems. They worked on the concept of quantity over the quality and as a result today, their missile stockpile is among the largest in the world, the number of unmanned vehicles they hold is highest with Iran and their self Defence capabilities are commendable. 

 

3. Asymmetric warfare capabilities – Unlike other countries, Iran heavily rely on its asymmetric warfare capabilities which it developed over last four decades or so. One of the principal dimensions of this is the Quds force which is an integral part of Iranian Republican Guards (IRGC). Iran believes in the use of conventional military capabilities in the asymmetric warfare which not only make things dangerous but also enhances Iran’s chances of survival in case of a full-fledged war with the west. They are supporting large number of non-state actors all across the middle east to include Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic Jihad, Bashar al-Assad led government in Syria and Shia militia groups in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and all across middle east. They are active in eight zones or directorates and their number varies between 5000 to 50000 as per reports of experts. No one actually knows how many of them are there and how are they operating. This is a significant dimension which Iran achieved and is difficult to handle even by the United States. 

 

4. Lessons learnt from Iraq War, War against terror and post 9/11 war in Afghanistan- Since entire Iranian military strategy was aimed at a conflict with a technologically superior enemy, it derived lessons from various wars and conflicts in its neighborhood and incorporated them in its overall military strategy. On one hand, it has deployed its arsenal all across the middle east in Syria, Yemen, and other parts for a possible second strike, on the other hand, it fortified its Defence complexes by turning them underground or located out of the reach of an adversary. Their huge network of military infrastructure including underground structures can sustain any major aggression and their robust Defence production industry is able to feed their army in the worst of the times. It is all indigenous, it is all located safely, and it is all capable of enhancing their productions based on need. 

 

5. Allies around- Over last few decades, Iran developed its allies all around it. While it already formed an “Axis of Resistance”with Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, Hamas, Houthis, and some Palestinian militants, it developed its friends in far Africa and in central Asia. It exported large consignments of war machines to countries like Sudan, Russia and North Korea and has helped other countries too. In recent times when US is rattling its chant against Russia and China, it was a golden moment for Iran to forge strong ties with them. During the recent Russia- Ukraine war, Iran supplied thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia and is currently supporting in other military hardware’s too. 

 

The war clouds are looming over the middle east and due to uncertainty over crude oil, the most important commodity of the world, there is gross uncertainty over the future of global economy too.

 

While it is a fact that Iran is a strong military power which cannot be subdued by western technological superiority, it is also clear that any prolonged conflict in the middle east will break the economic backbone of the world. United Nations has already proved itself to be a toothless tiger and India is rising fast as a global superpower. While ignoring Iran is not possible, it is essential for the global powers to address the issue so that the conflict can come to an end.