Divided Egypt warned of a new revolution

Egypt appeared braced for further uncertainty on Sunday after a close result in the first round of voting for a new constitution led to both sides claiming a moral victory.

According to unofficial figures, the Muslim Brotherhood-backed constitution won 56.5% of the vote as half of the country cast ballots at the weekend. The rest of the country votes next Saturday.

But a low turnout, claims of rigging and the closeness of the result will all prolong the crisis over its legitimacy. Mohammed ElBaradei, the leader of the secular and liberal opposition coalition, said a second revolution was "not far-fetched" if President Mohammed Morsi did not now back away from the draft document. "Country split, flagrant irregularities, low turnout, disillusion with Islamists on the rise - illiteracy remains a hurdle," he said on Twitter.

The constitution, which was hurriedly drawn up by an Islamist-dominated assembly after Morsi gave it and himself immunity from judicial oversight, has deeply split Egypt. The president and his backers in Egypt's Islamist parties were keen to win a large victory to put its legitimacy beyond doubt, despite the intense opposition it provoked because of its contents and the way in which it was drawn up.

They believe that the second set of results, in traditionally more conservative provincial Egypt, will confirm their win. They have always stressed in any case that a 51-49 victory would be enough to push the constitution through.

"The wheels of democracy in Egypt have started turning. No one can stop it after today," said Mohamed Gamal Heshmat, a committee member of the Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood's political front. However, the final turnout of 32% - nine points lower than that for the interim constitution following last year's revolution - means less than one in five of those eligible voted in favour.

International human rights groups and the United Nations human rights commissioner, Navi Pillay, as well as the opposition, have questioned the document's commitment to basic freedoms, and the opposition is now promising to reject it even if it is passed by an overall majority.

The social division in Egypt was made clear by the breakdown of the votes.

In Cairo, by far Egypt's biggest urban centre, the constitution was opposed by 57% to 43%, according to the Brotherhood's own figures.

However, the "yes" campaign won by proportionally much larger majorities in less populated but more conservative areas of Upper Egypt and the Sinai.

This urban-rural split has played into the deeply divisive propaganda of both sides. Opposition figures and newspaper editors allege that the Brotherhood relies for support on a less well-educated, more narrow-minded base easily manipulated by local clerics, while Islamists claim the "no" vote is led by a corrupt and wealthy elite, often with ties to the old regime, out of touch with the "real Egypt". The Brotherhood argued that a "yes" vote would allow normal government to resume. "I am saying yes to stability," said Moussa Mohammed, 48, an estate agent at a polling station in the poor Cairo district of Imam al-Shafi'i.

"We say no to the people who are paid from abroad and are pushing the country to the edge of hell."

But Ahmed El-Sayed El-Naggar, an economist at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said even a "yes" would not stop the economic rot. "I'm afraid the coming explosion will be out of control," he said.