How secure are Pak nukes?

NEW YORK: Pakistan’s combustible mixture of political instability and nuclear capability is a cause for concern, say experts who claim the US is assessing how secure Islamabad’s nuclear weapons would be if a coup were to topple President Pervez Musharraf.

“The US does not want to be publicly concerned. Musharraf’s control of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal depends on the loyalty of the generals in the field who have operational control over these weapons and their security.

If that loyalty shifts there could be a risk about who controls the weapons and how policies might change,” Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a Washington think tank, told DNA.    

“The US understands that Pakistan has fairly strong physical control over the weapons, but this control might be compromised if there is a change in the political situation in Pakistan.”

When asked if the US President would authorise American forces to seize or neutralise Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of an emergency, Kimball did not rule out the possibility: “I would be surprised if the US did not have a contingency plan.”

Pakistan has hidden its nuclear weapons throughout the country in order to keep India from destroying the arsenal in a pre-emptive strike, but it is believed the US has full knowledge about their location.

Experts feel the US can secure Pakistan’s weapons in a worst case scenario. They point to the US stance adopted in August 1991 when hardliners in the Soviet Union staged a coup to overthrow President Mikhail Gorbachev.

President George H W Bush immediately announced the US would unilaterally remove all battlefield nuclear weapons. The coup was aborted and Gorbachev responded to Bush senior’s initiative by deactivating hundreds of Soviet tactical nuclear weapons.

George Perkovich, the author of India’s Nuclear Bomb and director of the non-proliferation program at Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told DNA there is “always worry when there is potential major instability” in a nuclear-armed country.

“But if there is a coup, there would be others in the military who would stage the overthrow. They could be as committed to keeping firm control over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. That wouldn’t be a problem.”

Michael Krepon, co-funder of the Henry L Stimson Centre, said the odds were still in favour of the Pakistan military maintaining “strict command and control” over the nuclear button.

“If the Chinese government could maintain control of its nuclear weapons during the Cultural Revolution, Pakistan’s military can also maintain close watch and control over its nuclear crown jewels.”

Instead, Krepon worried the US-India nuclear deal would trigger an arms race in South Asia. “I think Pakistan will seek a similar deal from China and they would be inclined to help Pakistan.

I don’t think China will go back to helping Pakistan with its nuclear weapons programme as it did in the past. I don’t see that happening. But I do see Pakistan complaining that India is getting a preferential deal and it too needs electricity.”

China’s close relationship with Pakistan helps it gain leverage over India. Beijing will also be forthcoming in helping Pakistan build its nuclear energy industry because it looks to Pakistan for help in crushing a separatist movement among its ethnic Uighur Muslims.

“China has progressively tightened up its nuclear transactions and is constrained by its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and what it can do for Pakistan.

But if the rules are now loosened in the NSG for India, then Pakistan can argue to its best friend China that the rules ought to be loosened for Pakistan. China will find a creative solution.”

Pakistan has opposed the US-India nuclear deal. At a meeting this month of the National Command Authority chaired by Musharraf, the NCA which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear strategy warned the deal would trigger an arms race.