Several political analysts and observers of US politics would not have predicted a Presidential re-match, as is happening between incumbent US President Joe Biden and former US President Donald Trump (2016-2020). On Tuesday, March 12, both Biden and Trump won their parties’ presidential nominations.
It will be the first time after the 1956 election -- when Republican President Dwight Eisenhower took on Adlai Stevenson (a Democrat), whom he defeated the second time in succession – that a presidential rematch will be taking place.
If Trump does win in 2024, he will be the first US President to have won two non-consecutive terms – the last one to have achieved this feat was Grover Cleveland in 1893. Cleveland had served as US President between 1885-1889 and then 1893-1897.
If one were to look beyond the statistics, the Trump-Biden contest is important due to several factors. First, both Trump and Biden are too old to be president by American standards. If Joe Biden (born November 1942) were to win in 2024, he would be 82 when he takes over as president and 86 by the time he leaves the White House, while if Donald Trump (born June 1946) were to win the 2024 race, he would be 78 when he takes over and 82 by the time his term ends.
In recent months, Trump has been ahead of Biden in several polls. In a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Trump led Biden 40%-38%. Even some other surveys including those conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, Fox News and The Wall Street Journal have given Trump a higher percentage of vote than Biden.
Republican supporters and Trump
Many would argue, that there are divisions within Republican Camp between establishment Republicans and Trump. Trump’s soft approach vis-à-vis authoritarian leaders and his tendency to tamper with institutions – in his previous tenure -- along with the four criminal cases he is facing are some of the points which go against Trump
Nikki Haley, who served as US Representative to the UN during the Trump Administration, pulled out only last week. After pulling out of the race, she did not express her support for Trump but said that the former US President needs to work towards broadening his support. "It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him," Haley said.
Lukewarm attitude towards Biden of Democrat supporters
Within the Democrats, there is no strong support for Biden as such. Biden has drawn criticism from democrat supporters for his economic policy as well as his handling of the Middle East crisis, Immigration and Inflation. Apart from this, there is scepticism regarding his health.
Consensus between Republicans and Democrats on policy issues
It would be pertinent to point out, that while politics is polarised, in actual policy terms there is convergence between both parties. Biden’s policies vis-à-vis China have been tougher than that of Trump. On the Middle East too Biden has drawn the ire of party supporters – as mentioned earlier – due to his stance on the Israel-Palestine crisis. If one were to look at economic issues, while Biden has not been as insular as Trump, he has not been as much of a ‘globalist’ as earlier presidents given the overall mood and sentiment in the US. Irrespective of who wins in 2024 there is thus likely to be continuity on certain issues.
In conclusion, the re-match highlights several points. First, there is a leadership vacuum in both parties. Second, the outcome yet again will highlight the polarised nature of the polity. Third, 2024 is a clear battle between an establishment politician – Biden and one who seeks to dismantle the status quo. Finally, it remains to be seen if Trump -- were he to win – adopts a different approach towards complex geopolitical and trade-related issues.
The author is a policy analyst and faculty member at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA.)
