An eminent American expert on South Asia on Tuesday cautioned the Obama Administration against negotiating with the Taliban -- even the moderate ones -- to
bring stability to Afghanistan, saying such a policy was bound to fail.
"Negotiating with the Taliban, who are convinced military victory, is within sight, is the worst possible approach to stabilising Afghanistan, and one that would fail," Ashley Tellis, who served as senior adviser to the US Ambassador to India, said in a report.
Senior associate in the Carnegie South Asia program, Tellis had helped the US State Department negotiate the civil nuclear agreement with India and was a special assistant to the president and senior director for strategic planning and Southwest Asia in the National Security Council.
"Mullah Omar and the Taliban leadership have decisively rejected any reconciliation with the government of Afghanistan," he said in his report "Reconciling With the
Taliban? Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan".
"The tribal chiefs, village elders, and street fighters, who either support the insurgency or are sitting on the sidelines currently but are susceptible to being reconciled in principle, certainly will not take any steps in that direction so long as the Karzai regime, and its Western supporters, are not seen to be winning in their long-running battle against the Taliban," he said.
Tellis warned that US signals of impatience and a desire for an early exit could motivate insurgents to maintain a hard line and outlast the international coalition. Though costly, a long-term commitment to building an effective Afghan state is the only way to achieve victory and defend US national security objectives, he said.
Concluding that Negotiation with the Taliban is premature and unnecessary, Tellis sad Afghan stability can be achieved through a concerted modification of current military
and political strategy-sustaining commitment from Washington, returning to successful counterinsurgency operations, and improving Afghan governance.
He said a lasting peace in Afghanistan and defeat of the Taliban can only come from a political-military victory that diminishes the rewards for continued resistance.
"The Taliban's leadership does not want conciliation. Initiating unwanted negotiations could exacerbate ethnic fissures in Afghanistan, signal weakness or defeat in
Washington and Kabul, and ultimately renew civil war," the report said.
Stating that the US must reaffirm the goal of building a democratic and stable Afghan State, the report said that counterterrorism and state-building are not mutually
exclusive. Washington cannot fight al-Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan without supporting the creation of an effective and responsive regime in Kabul, he said.
