Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called elections on Friday, scheduling a presidential and parliamentary ballot for January 24. None of the scenarios facing the embattled leader is particularly appealing.
If there is no pact between his Fatah movement and its Islamist rival Hamas, Western-backed Abbas will have to go it alone, fielding candidates in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip where the Islamists can easily derail the vote. Such a ballot could cement the deep split in Palestinian ranks.
Hamas, which won the last parliamentary election, has said it will prevent elections in absence of a deal with Fatah. A senior official from Hamas' government in the Gaza Strip said the Islamist group was considering holding a separate election in response to Abbas' decree.
Hamas could also unilaterally name a president as Abbas's successor as his term ends in January, a move that would further deepen the rift. Abbas had offered to delay elections until June provided Hamas had agreed to an Egyptian-brokered reconciliation process, but that pact was stillborn. An aide to Abbas on Friday indicated this was still a possibility.
The right-leaning Israeli government is unlikely to allow elections to be held in Arab East Jerusalem which Israel captured in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognised internationally. A ban on voting in Jerusalem -- although Israel did allow it under international pressure in 1996 and in 2006 -- could weaken Abbas and raise questions about legitimacy of the vote, a card Hamas would heavily exploit.
Holding a vote without Hamas might lead to the Palestinians having two rival presidents, two parliaments and two prime ministers, in a huge setback to the Palestinian goal of establishing a state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital.
If, however, a last-gasp deal between Fatah and Hamas were reached, paving the way for elections in June, Abbas could reschedule the vote for next summer.
