Our markets induced US to change stand

 

The US administration has got over the first hurdle in lifting the technology apartheid it had imposed on India following the Pokhran I test.

 

The US legislated — the only country to do so — that there would be no cooperation on civilian nuclear energy with countries that were not members of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Simultaneously, the London-based Nuclear Suppliers Group was organised to deny nuclear technology, nuclear materials, and equipment to non-signatories of the NPT.

 

Over the next three decades, this group grew to 45 nations, which encompassed all nuclear weapons powers, nations with advanced nuclear technology, and nations with uranium ore. Subsequently, technology denial in the nuclear field was extended to other technologies on the grounds that they could be of dual use.

 

The result was that India was subjected to a rigorous technology denial regime across the board. Apart from the European countries, Japan, Russia, and China became members of this technology denial regime.

 

The Bush administration came to the conclusion in the new balance of power system - comprising the US, the European Union, Russia, China, Japan and India - that the US would benefit by having a fast-growing India as a strategic partner.

 

The US is under long-term challenge from China in terms of economic and technological pre-eminence. China has the advantage of out-producing the US in terms of scientists and engineers in the next generation or two.

 

Therefore, the US needs India as a reservoir of talent, of young skilled manpower, as an outsourcing entity and, lastly, an expanding market.

 

If India is to be made an effective partner to sustain US pre-eminence, the technology apartheid on India did not make sense. Therefore, the US took the initiative to dismantle the technology apartheid. In this effort, it had the support of most of the industrialised nations of the world. The scrupulous adherence of India to non-proliferation norms came in handy.

 

Therefore, what is being done is not restricted to nuclear commerce but is a first step in removing the entire technology denial regime vis-à-vis India. It is being done in the interests of the US. Therefore there is no reason to doubt the bona fides of US intentions.

 

After this first step empowering the US administration to negotiate a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with India (the 1-2-3 agreement), there has to be a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will be India- specific. This is so because this exceptionalisation has been extended only to India and not to Pakistan or Israel, the other two countries which have nuclear arsenals but are not members of the NPT.

 

Then the NSG will have to amend its guidelines to permit interaction of its members with India on nuclear matters. The US has already persuaded an overwhelming majority of members to go along with it. It hopes to persuade the remaining few to subscribe to the consensus.

 

It was not easy for the administration to de-condition the mindsets of non-proliferation fundamentalists, the think tanks, and a large number of Congress members subjected to brainwashing on non-proliferation over the last 40 years. The administration had to highlight the strategic gains for the US in lifting the technology apartheid on India.

 

The present legislation testifies to the success of the efforts of President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Their change of strategy towards India is somewhat analogous to Kissinger’s mission to Beijing in 1971, during which he won China over to the US side. Such major strategic moves are always leadership-led processes and it would take time for the benefits of the strategy to be appreciated widely.