Political uncertainty in Pakistan – What will be the future?

Pakistan is going through an extremely crucial political phase, where the current situation is worrisome not only for the world but for India too. Ever since Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI) government was toppled & a multi-party coalition called Pakistan Democratic movement (PDM) has seized power, the political instability in Pakistan has increased manifold.

Imagine a country which is nuclear capable, indirectly ruled by military and Islamic fanatics and where terrorism is a state policy, political instability reaches its peak. This is a dangerous situation not only for Pakistan or India but the rest of the world too. Being the nearest neighbor & archrival for over seven decades, it is pertinent for us to analyze the current political phase in Pakistan well. India must know who is likely to be in the seat of power when elections are carried out in next few months in Pakistan, and we must understand the factors which are going to affect the political future of Pakistan.

Worsening Economic Situation

Pakistan is struggling for its survival with almost no foreign reserves, a debt more than its GDP, Natural calamities due to flood situation has made situation worst. What a common person would need today is the basic amenities & food and if current Shahbaz Sharif government is successful in providing the same, it will not be difficult for him to seize power again. Otherwise, there are chances of a hung national assembly. Furthermore, since Pakistan government has agreed to the demands of International Monetary Fund (IMF) to get the tranche of $1.1Bn which will create more economic pressure on the common man, things may turn further worse too. With no money in its banks, the Sharif government has no option but to either wait for IMF money or to expect some financial aid pledged in Geneva flood relief moot, to reach Pakistan in coming months. That’s why Shahbaz Sharif wants to delay the elections so that he gets enough time to win the heart and minds of his voters.

Role of Pakistan Army

Out of nearly 75 years of Independence, Pakistan Army ruled the country directly for over five decades while for the rest of the time, they were king makers. During 2018 elections, there were countrywide reports of large-scale poll rigging in favor of Imran Khan Niazi & he was dubbed as a selected Prime Minister. However, since his ouster, Imran had been quite vocal against Pakistan Army, and it is sure that he will not be the choice this time. The political future of Pakistan will depend upon the party who is able to strike a deal with Rawalpindi boys. Pakistan Army can never stay neutral in the political scenario as it is the biggest business conglomerate in Pakistan running over 50 entities like Fauji Foundation, Shaheen Foundation, Defence Housing Authorities, Bahria Foundation, Askari Bank Ltd and so on. Generals sitting in Rawalpindi must select the government of their choice in Islamabad in their own commercial interests.

Punjab Factor

Punjabis have been ruling over Pakistan ever since its inception and Punjab factor will play a vital role in any election. More than half of all the seats of National assembly (Required to prove a majority) comes from Pakistani Punjab. Historically if any party wins in Punjab, it forms the government in Islamabad too. That’s the reason why it is not only the center of all political activities but also favored by the past ruling governments. Currently Punjab is no longer a bastion of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and it will be difficult for Mian Shahbaz Sharif to wrest his control over the province where he was longest serving Chief Minister. Factors like attitude of public, overall development and most importantly the outlook of Islamic Radicals like Tehreek e Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) will play a vital role in Punjab.

Situation in Khyber Pakhtunwa (KP) & Baluchistan

Although the population of Pashtuns & Baloch is lesser in Pakistan, yet their vote will also be important. In the light of large-scale oppression tactics against these communities by Pakistan army, a serious internal security situation has arisen in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunwa. With 75 National Assembly seats in these two provinces, their role in the upcoming elections cannot be undermined. Baluch rebels & Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are carrying out daily attacks on Pakistani Security forces are a big challenge too and will contribute largely to frame the attitude of voters in the upcoming elections.

Threat of a Military Coup

Unlike predecessor Bajwa, current Army Chief General Asim Munir is finding himself in a difficult situation to be apolitical as well as on same page with the political leadership. He is ambitious, he is hardliner & he is liked by the common public of Pakistan. Since both the leaders – Sharifs & Imran Khan are engaged in allegations related to corruption and responsibility of worsening economic situation in Pakistan, it is likely that Pakistan Army may take over the governance of the country. This is not a new trend in Pakistan and in case this happens, it will get the support of common men too. However, the same will not only invite sanctions from the rest of the world but also create a threat in the south Asian region.

So, unlike other countries, who will be the king in Pakistan is a tough question and will depend upon multiple factors. As the elections are scheduled this year and everyone is trying to woo the voters, how the situation will unfold is a matter of time. Currently the challenges before the common men are of utmost importance and will decide the outcome if at all Pakistan Army remains neutral.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article are of the author, and are not associated with DNA English.