Cautioning that the US "cannot create a united, pro-American Afghanistan", a premier American intelligence think-tank has said that Washington would not be threatened if the Taliban ruled Afghanistan as long as it can continue operations to counter Osama bin Laden's outfit there.
"The Taliban ruling Afghanistan is not a threat to the United States, so long as intense counter-terrorist operations continue there," the US-based think-tank Stratfor has said in a latest paper focussing on what the Obama administration's policy towards Afghanistan should be.
Drawing a distinction between the Taliban and the al Qaeda, it suggested a change in the US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, saying Washington "does not control enough of Afghanistan to deny al Qaeda sanctuary, can't control the border with Pakistan and lacks effective intelligence and troops for defeating the Taliban".
"Logic argues, therefore, for the creation of a political process for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan coupled with a recommitment to intelligence operations against al Qaeda.
"Ultimately, the United States must protect itself from radical Islamists, but it cannot create a united, pro-American Afghanistan. That would not happen even if the United States sent 500,000 troops there, which it doesn't have anyway," the
Stratfor paper – titled Strategic Diversion, said.
Pointing out that neither the Hamid Karzai government nor the US forces could gain control over Afghanistan's vast rural areas ruled by Taliban, it said the best available solution would be to retreat to strategic Afghan points and cities and
protect the Karzai regime.
"That stalemate could create the foundations for political negotiations, but if there is no threat to the enemy, the enemy has little reason to negotiate," the Stratfor paper said.
It said there were growing indications that American operations had "crippled" al Qaeda, which was only putting out videos and "trying to appear fearsome" at times.
"So if the primary reason for fighting the Taliban is to keep al Qaeda from having a base of operations in Afghanistan, that reasons might be mooted now as al Qaeda appears to be wrecked" and it was not clear whether the terror network was operational any more, it said.
However, Stratfor paper did not rule out another Islamist terror group coming into play using sophisticated methods and training. "It is therefore no longer clear that resisting the Taliban is essential for blocking al Qaeda: al Qaeda may simply no longer be there," it said.
On this basis, the intelligence think tank suggested "the creation of a political process for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan coupled with a recommitment to intelligence operations against al Qaeda".
It asserted that the search for al Qaeda and other Islamist outfits "does not require tens of thousands of troops— it requires excellent intelligence and a special operations capability. That is true whether al Qaeda is in Pakistan or Afghanistan. Intelligence, covert forces and airstrikes are what is needed in this fight, and of the three, intelligence is the key."
The current American strategy, it said, "cannot secure Afghanistan, nor does it materially contribute to shutting down al Qaeda.
"Trying to hold some cities and strategic points with the number of troops currently under consideration is not an effective strategy to this end; the United States is already ceding large areas of Afghanistan to the Taliban that could serve as sanctuary for al Qaeda. Protecting the Karzai government and key cities is therefore not significantly contributing to the al Qaeda-suppression strategy."
In order to split the al Qaeda strategy from the Taliban strategy, "the CIA will become the critical war fighter in the theatre, while conventional forces will be withdrawn. It follows that Obama will need to think carefully about his approach to intelligence."
