US not ready for nuke hit: Study

WASHINGTON: The United States is not ready for a nuclear hit, with a nightmare scenario being one of chaos and paranoia, a study has said.

"We want to encourage people to pay attention to this, because it's not all the end of the world," said Cham Dallas, Director of the University of Georgia's Centre for Mass Destruction Defence, a facility funded by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

In a detailed attack simulation that took three years to complete, Dallas projected the effects of small- and large-scale nuclear attacks on New York, Chicago, the District and Atlanta -- all "potentially high-risk cities".

"Details are predictably disturbing -- overloaded hospitals, chaos and "paranoia, social isolation, demoralisation," the study, reported in The Washington Times, noted.

A 20-kilotonne detonation would leave debris "tens of feet thick in downtown areas," it said.

Roughly half the population would be killed, mainly from collapsing buildings and most survivors in downtown areas would be exposed to fatal radiation.

A 550-kilotonne explosion would cause buildings to spontaneously combust, with mass fires four miles in all directions. In the District, 2.6 million people would be affected by fallout, heat and destructive blast.

The figure is 6 million in New York. The study has also offered some sensible interventions. "There are actually steps that one can take to save lives. But we're running out of time," Dallas added.

The contributing researcher William Bell said a 20-kilotonne weapon -- similar to what fell on Hiroshima during World War II -- could be manufactured by terrorists and countries like North Korea and Iran.

A 550-kilotonne weapon, once common in the Soviet Union's arsenal, was the device "most likely to be stolen by terrorists."

As the likelihood of an attack increases, so should our preparations, Dallas said. He has called for a "vigorous, creative and accelerated" response from federal agencies, the military, academic institutions and local responders.

Dallas will be presenting his study to the United Nations on April 19.

The study found that hospitals, medical records and resources concentrated in the area are most likely to be destroyed in all four cities.

Specialised facilities to treat burn victims are lacking as the nationwide hospital system has about 1,500 burn beds. It's grim for downtown areas, the study said.

"There actually is quite a bit that we can do. In certain areas, it may be possible to turn the death rate from 90 per cent in some burn populations to probably 20 or 30 per cent -- and those are very big differences -- simply by being prepared well in advance," Dallas said.

He has urged the authorities to inform public what has to be done in the event of a nuclear attack. He said hospitals outside the blast zone should be prepared to cope with a surge of casualties and non-medical personnel be taught to treat second-degree burns and care for wounds.