Vacuum left by US may be filled by Taliban

Sceptics in India are upset at US president Barack Obama’s roadmap for exiting Afghanistan, fearing that the vacuum left by the Americans will be filled by the Taliban, al Qaeda and assorted jihadi groups. This, in turn, will encourage the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and other anti-India groups to again freely plan and execute terror strikes inside the country.

Some analysts are also wondering why Obama called up prime minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday if India was not to be mentioned at all in the speech made at West Point.

Timothy Roemer, US ambassador to India, tried to settle some of these doubts. “Our core goal in Afghanistan and Pakistan — to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat terrorist networks — is an aspiration we share with India,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.

Harping on the Indo-US strategic partnership, Roemer, a crafty politician, tried to flatter India by stressing on New Delhi’s importance to Washington.

“India is a key global partner of the United States and we value the positive role India continues to play in the region, including its significant humanitarian contributions to Afghanistan,” the envoy said.

Former foreign secretary Salman Haider has an entirely different take on it. “For us in India, the US president’s forthright comments on Pakistan chime with our own concerns.

The US administration has been seeing through the Pakistani stand for sometime, but now Obama himself has made it clear. There is no room for hiding any more, Pakistan has to act against all terror groups, he said. “President Bush realised the double games that were going on during his tenure, but he could afford to ignore these contradictions. But the stakes are much higher for Obama. The situation is difficult and the time to turn a blind eye to elements within Pakistan helping the extremists is now long over. The US is demanding action.”

But Haider also has problems with Obama announcing a timeline for withdrawal.

Acknowledging that this is basically for consumption in the US, Haider says it sends out a wrong signal to the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan and to the Pakistani establishment.

This reinforces the scepticism that Afghanistan will be plunged into further chaos after the American withdrawal, as was the case after the Soviet troops withdrew from the war-torn country in 1988-89.

The jihadi forces can lie low and wait for the appropriate time to strike. Pakistan will have second thoughts about continuing the blood feuds in its tribal areas. Islamabad, which has long been seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan, will also realise that in the long run it cannot afford to antagonise the extremists there.

A hostile government in Afghanistan with excellent ties with India will not be in Pakistan’s self interest. So keeping Islamabad’s lines open to Taliban and al Qaeda is essential for its long-term interests. “This is why I believe that Obama’s speech is sending out mixed signals,” said Haider.

For strategic analyst C Uday Bhaskar, Obama’s new Af-Pak policy is on expected lines.

“It is basically cautious and prudent and I welcome the fact that the emphasis is not just on military action but on building capacity in Afghanistan.”

He shrugs off concerns about a 2011 exit strategy saying, “This is not cast in stone and will depend on an assessment of the situation at that time.”