Visa Uncertainty: Impact of US polls on global talent

The results of the forthcoming US Presidential election could have a major impact on employment-based immigration, especially for H-1B visas, according to ANI. The report mentioned that, if Donald Trump returns to power, his Administration may bring back its earlier strict policies, which could mean more scrutiny and higher denial rates for H-1B and L-1 visas.

The H-1B and L-1 visas are types of US work visas for foreign professionals. The H-1B visa is for skilled foreign workers in specialized fields, such as IT, engineering and finance. It allows companies in the US to hire international talent for jobs that require specific expertise. The L-1 visa is for employees of international companies who are being transferred to a US office. The L-1A is for managers and executives, while the L-1B is for employees with specialized knowledge. Both visas let foreign professionals live and work in the US for a specified period.

In Trump’s first term, denial rates for H-1B visas increased from 4% to 17%, while, for L-1 visas, they went up from 12% to 28%. This trend could come back, affecting IT companies that depend heavily on these visas to bring skilled workers to the US. The report noted that, in his first term, Trump issued an order called ‘Buy American and Hire American’, which put more restrictions on H-1B visas.

Things have changed since then. Many IT companies now rely much less on H-1B visas. Estimates show the number of employees needing these visas has dropped from 65% to below 50% in recent years. This change protects these companies from the risk of higher visa denial rates because they have hired more local workers in the US. Trump’s Administration tried to set higher minimum wages for H-1B visa-holders, making it too costly for some employers to hire them.

Although these policies were stopped by the courts, they may come back if Trump is re-elected. Currently, H-1B wages are already 25%-35% higher than average wages, making it hard to argue that these workers are being underpaid.

The report says that, if Trump becomes president, it may seem negative at first, but will possibly have little effect on Indian IT companies. If Harris were president, things would mostly stay the same for them. New laws being discussed, including Bills supported by both parties, could affect how skilled workers from other countries can move to the US in future.

2024 Elections & STEM

Changing Landscape for International Students & Research Funding

As the US approaches the 2024 elections, funding for education, particularly in the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) fields, is becoming a key issue. STEM education and research funding have traditionally received support from both political parties because of their importance to the economy and national security.

STEM fields fuel progress in technology, healthcare, infrastructure and defence—key areas needed to keep the US competitive worldwide. Funding for STEM programmes, generally, comes from such agencies as the National Science Foundation (NSF), Department of Defense (DoD), National Institutes of Health (NIH) and others.

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris have different views on this, leaving the future of higher education and support for STEM programmes uncertain. Policies from either a Trump or Harris Administration are expected to impact federal grants, scholarships, research funding and visa rules for international STEM students.

American universities have depended on federal funding—financial support provided by the US government to such organizations as universities for specific projects or programmes, such as research, innovation and training, education and public services—which draws in thousands of students and researchers from around the world. But, according to Times of India, the outcome of the 2024 election could bring major changes to this support system.

However, each party’s priorities could cause major changes to how funds are distributed. Democrats typically favour boosting funding for research in climate science, green technology and healthcare. On the other hand, Republicans usually focus on funding areas related to national security, defence technologies and creating jobs in manufacturing and technology industries. The result of the 2024 election could shift funding towards certain priorities, influencing which areas within STEM receive more focus and support.

The US continues to be one of the most popular choices for international students looking to earn advanced degrees in STEM. This is largely due to the country’s top universities and excellent research opportunities. However, the rules around student visas, financial support and permission to work are often shaped by the government in power and these policies can change depending upon the political climate.

A government that is stricter on immigration may introduce tougher visa rules, which could reduce the number of international students able to study and work in the US. The Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which lets international students work in their field for up to three years after graduation, could also be affected by political changes. If new rules limit this programme, international students—especially those in STEM fields who depend on OPT for hands-on work experience—may face more difficulties in finding job opportunities.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)