World population to reach 9.2 billion in 2050: United Nations report

UNITED NATIONS: World population is set to surpass 9 billion mark by 2050 with less developed countries witnessing most of the increase, a UN report has said.

Population growth will remain concentrated in populous countries with half the projected increase from 2005 to 2050 in eight countries (listed according to the size of their expected growth) -- India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, the United States, Bangladesh and China.

An important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from HIV/AIDS because of the increasing use of anti-retroviral drugs and the downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.

"We are expecting a relatively good coverage of anti-retroviral drugs in 31 of the most affected countries by 2015," Hania Zlotnik, the Director of the UN Population Division, told a press briefing in New York on Wednesday while launching the report.

"According to our estimates, 70 per cent of the affected people are going to get treatment. Given that, we're postponing the deaths by several years."

The UN report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries compared with the previous estimate in 2004. The study, 'Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections,' also predicts that the number of elderly persons will hit 1 billion by then.

"One of the surprises is that population growth is most concentrated in the 60 plus age group," Zlotnik said.

"The place where the action is needed is the older population," she said, pointing out that the biggest change will occur in the developing world, and developing countries will have to cope with the situation by investing in both education and care of the elderly.

The study shows that the world population is likely to increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050.

This increase is equivalent to the total size of the world population in 1950, and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050.

In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion, and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually.

As a result of declining fertility and increasing longevity, the populations of increasing number of countries are ageing rapidly.

Between 2005 and 2050, half of the increase in the world population will be accounted for by a rise in the population aged 60 years or over, whereas the number of children (persons under age 15) are projected to decline slightly.

Furthermore, in the more developed regions, the population aged 60 or over is expected nearly to double (from 245 million in 2005 to 406 million in 2050), whereas that of persons under age 60 will likely decline (from 971 million in
2005 to 839 million in 2050).

"The world population is ageing because of the great success in reducing population, the success of humanity in controlling its numbers," Zlotnik observed.

"The only thing we can hope is that ageing continues and that society can adapt itself to the important social changes ... and have better lives," she said.

The study expects the fertility in the less developed countries as a whole to drop from 2.75 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050.

To achieve such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands in the poorest countries, the Population Division said, pointing out that without this, the world population could increase by twice as many people as those alive in 1950.

Reacting to the findings, the Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) said they serve as a wake-up call to the urgency of giving couples the means to exercise their human right to freely determine the sizes of their families.

"Currently, about 200 million women in these countries lack access to safe and effective contraceptive services," said Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "Funding for family planning must be increased to meet the needs of these women, not only to determine the world's future, but also to prevent unintended pregnancies and reduce maternal and infant death."

According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, most of the countries in the former Soviet Union, and several small island nations.

Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the 'relatively beneficial stage' of having more workers than children or elderly 'and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades.'

"But then their populations will start aging more, which is where Europe and North America are going," she said.