Christophe Barraud, known as the ‘world’s most accurate economist’, has predicted a Donald Trump victory in the November 5 U.S. presidential election. Market Securities Monaco chief Barraud, who tops Bloomberg's economic rankings for 11 of the past 12 years, bases his prediction on a variety of indicators, including financial market signals and betting markets.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Barraud stated, “Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modellers' forecasts, and financial markets, the most probable outcomes are: And a GOP clean sweep.” But his analysis suggests Republicans will probably win control of the Senate and perhaps the House, too, though that last is not so certain.
Barraud's predictions are that a Trump presidency would spark short-term economic growth, with GDP expected to increase between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025. But he warns that tax cuts could be offset by long-term problems like a soaring federal deficit without new revenue sources.
Following a Trump win, the economist also expects big moves in the bond market. Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond could rise to 4.5 percent, perhaps as high as 5 percent, as Trump's policies take hold, he predicts. The outlook is in contrast to the consensus forecasts that call for slower growth rates of 2.6 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025.
The mix of predictions is furthered with statistician Nate Silver adding a gut feeling that Trump will win, 53.1 percent. But historian Allan Lichtman, whose accurate election forecasts are legendary, says Vice President Kamala Harris will win based on his 'Keys to the White House' model.
