Will governor elections render judgement on Obama?

Republicans and Democrats are debating whether voting next Tuesday in Virginia and New Jersey governor's races will render a first judgement on president Barack Obama.

Republicans, looking ahead to 2010 congressional elections, hope the races will show they have signs of life as they try to claw back from devastating 2006 and 2008 losses.

Democrats, attempting to keep Republicans in a deep political hole, have doubts that the results from two states will tell much at all about the mood of the country.

Analysts say the results could provide some clues about Obama's standing among Americans.

In Virginia, which Obama won in 2008 to become the first the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1964, Republican Bob McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds by double digits in the polls. He is widely considered a shoo-in in Tuesday voting.

In heavily Democratic New Jersey, incumbent Democratic governor Jon Corzine has righted the ship and holds a narrow lead in the polls and may squeak out a victory over Republican Chris Christie, depending on how many votes independent candidate Chris Daggett pulls from Christie.

A wild-card race is under way in New York's 23rd district for a seat in the US House of Representatives. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, endorsed by former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, is running close with Democrat Bill Owens while Republican Dede Scozzafava trails.

Political analysts are trying to determine what the outcome will mean for the national picture and what, if anything, can be said about Obama, who is struggling to revive US job growth, get a US healthcare overhaul through Congress and manage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Democrats have held Virginia's governor's seat for eight years and Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said a Republican victory in the state would be significant for the party.

Obama traveled to Virginia twice to campaign for Deeds but, in general, Democrats have not been able to come even close to generating the same type of enthusiasm among voters that Obama received a year ago.

"Obama is a factor here," Sabato said. "He's energising Republicans and the turnout is going to be heavily Republican. The Democrats just aren't showing up."

Dave Wasserman, a political analyst at the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said at this point it appears the races show that without Obama specifically on the ballot, Democrats do not do as well.

In Virginia in particular, he said, the turnout is likely to be "whiter and older" than in 2008.

"But the question of just how much that is the case will tell us something about what Democrats need to do in 2010," he said.

Republicans are pursuing a strategy to try to tie Obama's spending policies and healthcare overhaul proposals to the election outcome.

Veteran Republican operative Karl Rove wrote in The Wall Street Journal on Thursday that a Republican victory in either Virginia or New Jersey would tell Democratic politicians in Republican-leaning states that "support for Obama's policies is risky to their political health."

The White House dismisses the argument that Obama is essentially on the ballot in Virginia, saying McDonnell has outspent Deeds and that the state hardly has a history of voting Democratic.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs pointed to a poll in The Washington Post this week that said 70% of Virginians surveyed did not intend that their vote be a judegment on Obama, one way or the other.

Democratic strategist Doug Schoen said he considered the key race to be the one in New Jersey because Obama won that state by 16 points in 2008. Obama has campaigned twice for Corzine and goes back on Sunday.

"If the Democrats and Obama lose two elections, New Jersey and Virginia, then that would be a negative judgment on Obama," Schoen said. "If the Democrats win New Jersey and lose Virginia, I would basically say, no harm, no foul."