Southern comfort

The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led alliance was expected to do much better than it did from Tamil Nadu. The logic of alliance arithmetic was behind this expectation.

J Jayalalitha, after all, had managed a pre-poll alliance that consisted of the PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi), considered strong in the northern part of Tamil Nadu, as well as the MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and the two Left parties with a thin but stable voter-base across the state. And by endorsing the demand for a Tamil Eelam in her party’s manifesto, she seemed to ride a wave.

The poll outcome, however, bears out that the tragic events in Sri Lanka, which certainly is a humanitarian tragedy involving the Tamil speaking people, did not determine the choice of the voters. The defeat of Vaiko from Virudhunagar as well as the fall of all the seven candidates of the PMK reflects this. The MDMK chief, after all, had emerged as the face of the Tamil Eelam cause and the PMK chief too had been speaking on similar lines for a decade now. Notwithstanding the fact that they have done little while holding offices in the Union government.

The MDMK and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) had won one seat each. And that could be credited to the alliance that the two parties had with the AIADMK. These two constituencies — Erode and Coimbatore — are in the western region of Tamil Nadu where the ruling DMK-led Front could win just one constituency, the Nilgiris won by Union minister A Raja. The AIADMK has pretty much managed to retain its hold in this region. The party had more or less swept the polls from here in the 2006 elections to the state assembly too.

The other big message from the results is the decimation of the PMK. After having managed to be on the winning side each time since 1998, S Ramadoss never seemed to have an occasion to sense the erosion of his support base. The DMK-led combine, meanwhile, appears to have benefited immensely from its alliance with the VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi). Thol Thirumavalavan, who has won the Chidambaram Lok Sabha constituency, also ensured that the DMK won a number of seats in northern Tamil Nadu. Union minister TR Baalu owes his victory in Sriperumbudur to the alliance with the VCK.

Recall the resistance from sections in the Tamil Nadu Congress to the inclusion of the VCK in the combine! Thirumavalavan’s pro-Eelam stance had offended them. Unfortunately for them, the TNCC (Tamil Nadu Congress Committee) chief, Thangabalu could not benefit out of any of these and nor could Union minister Mani Shankar Aiyer. 

The DMK’s impressive performance, meanwhile, can be attributed to the performance of the state government. The revamped public distribution system (PDS) in the state ensured that the larger sections of the middle and the lower middle classes were taken care of when prices of essentials soared high (some months ago). This seems to have helped the party. The state government had included pulses and spices in addition to rice at Re1 a kg for distribution through the PDS. The sub-tract of the poll outcome story is that of MK Azhagiri’s election from Madurai. The impact of this on the dynamics of the DMK’s affairs will unfold in the months ahead.

It is another matter that the DMK lost the south Chennai constituency. It seems that the story of Chennai being the DMK’s citadel is no longer true. This fact along with the AIADMK’s wins from the western region as well as in other places (adding up to its nine seats) is a clear signal that Jayalalitha may be down but not out. The AIADMK continues to be a force across Tamil Nadu and its weakest link is in the southern districts; a part of the state where the party seemed invincible until some years ago. The party began losing elections from the southern districts in May 2004 and the trend continues.

The shock is the outcome from Sivaganga. P Chidambaram did win but with a slender margin of a little over 3000. He had lost from Sivaganga in 1999 to a not-so-well-known Sudarsana Nachiappan. But then, Chidambaram had contested as the Tamil Maanila Congress candidate. The Congress party at that time had an alliance with the AIADMK and the DMK with the BJP. His defeat was expected. It is a different story now. Chidambaram just scraped through even while the DMK nominee, MK Azhagiri in neighbouring Madurai registered an emphatic victory and the impressive performance of the front that he was a part.

There is also a larger message from the poll results in Tamil Nadu. The substantial chunk of votes that actor Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) has polled across the state is a signal towards the arrival of a third force in the political scene. The DMDK has the potential to take on the DMK and the AIADMK when assembly elections are held in May 2011.