ANALYSIS
For the EU, the worry is Trump’s repeated announcements that the US would end the war by ending military support for Ukraine
Several US allies – in the European Union (EU) and Indo-Pacific – are worried at the prospects of a Trump Presidency -- which seems more probable due to the confusion in the ranks of the Democratic Party ahead of the 2024 presidential election which is months away. Current US President and Democrat candidate Joe Biden pulled out of the presidential race and endorsed US Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s presidential candidate, said Biden in a statement:
"It has been the greatest honour of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.
For the EU, the worry is Trump’s repeated announcements that the US would end the war by ending military support for Ukraine. While speaking at the Republican National Convention (Milwaukee), on July 18, 2024 Donald Trump said that the world is in world war 3 and that he would end “… the horrible war in Ukraine and Russia”.
Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary – currently – is at odds with the EU since he has pitched himself as ‘peacemaker’ and visited Russia, China much to the chagrin of other EU member states. Orban gets along well with Trump and met with the Republican candidate on July 11, 2024 at Trump’s La-Margo (Florida) residence. Orban, dubbed a right-wing populist, and Trump are supposed to have discussed ways for bringing about an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, has a similar approach towards Russia and has repeatedly stated that China is the biggest threat for the US and Washington should focus on the challenges Beijing poses to it.
Russia while reacting to Trump’s statements has said that it is important to be realistic.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said it is important to be cautious regarding “pre-election rhetoric” and being realistic.
On July 19, 2024 Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a telephonic conversation. Trump during the conversation is supposed to have reiterated his commitment towards bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to an end.
Trump’s approach on key foreign policy issues: Opportunities and challenges for India
India would be closely watching Trump’s approach towards Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the Biden administration has not openly criticised India’s decision to purchase oil from Russia, PM Modi’s recent visit to Russia, co-inciding with the NATO meeting in Washington was watched closely. While speaking days after Modi’s meeting with Putin, US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti while alluding to India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict said, "we must not just stand for peace, we must take concrete actions to make sure those who don’t play by peaceful rules, that their war machines cannot continue unabated”.
He also said, that neither side can take each other for “granted”. India while reacting to Garcetti’s statementsaid that both sides could agree to disagree.
The US State Department said that it sought India’s assistance “.. to realise an enduring and just peace for Ukraine," India would clearly welcome an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and would certainly be observing Trump’s statements.
A few points need to be borne in mind. First, there were differences on economic issues between both countries during Trump’s previous tenure (this includes tariffs, Trump’s approach towards H1B visas). While those can be navigated, some of Trump’s advisors have suggested that the Trump administration should penalise countries which are going for de-dollarization (trade in local currencies and reduction on the US dollar). India is one of the countries which has gone for de-dollarisation – especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
While in his previous tenure, Trump did focus on strengthening partnerships within the Indo-Pacific, his transactional approach towards trade and security issues sent wrong signals to several countries. Biden on the other hand has strengthened alliances with countries within the Indo-Pacific and focused on synergies.
Trump could follow a tougher approach vis-à-vis Iran. India stopped purchase of oil from Iran in May 2019 (after the Trump administration removed the waivers, from sanctions, which it had provided to India and other countries for purchase of oil from Iran) though New Delhidid managed to get waivers from sanctions for the Chabahar Port.
While work on the Chabahar Project had slowed down and New-Delhi-Tehran ties had got impacted after India’s decision to stop purchase of oil from Iran in 2019, India has shown greater urgency with regard to the project, given its importance not just as a gateway to Central Asia, Iran and Afghanistan but also as part of the International North South Transport Corridor -- INSTC (in May 2024 India and Iran signed a 10 year contract for the operation of the Chabahar Port project).
If US-Iran ties were to deteriorate under a Trump Administration, New Delhi’s ties with Tehran may not remain unaffected. While it is true that given the current turbulence in the Middle East, there is a distinct possibility of Washington-Tehran ties going downhill, one important factor to note is that Saudi Arabia’s ties with Iran have improved significantly (Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed diplomatic ties through an agreement signed in 2023). Saudi Arabia could play a possible role in reducing tensions between the US, under Trump and Iran. Iran’s President elect Masoud Pezeshkian also is a pragmatist who favours dialogue with the west.
In conclusion, Donald Trump is likely to give precedence to US interests, while there could be some convergence between New Delhi and Washington DC, there could also be challenges for India. It is important for India to thus have realistic expectations from a Republican dispensation under Trump.
(The author is a policy analyst and faculty member at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)
Crossing the Line: Ukraine's Use of Storm Shadow Missiles and the Escalation of Conflict
When Malaika Arora talked about the controversial ‘instant pleasure’ ad, it was for…
This is the world’s most expensive shopping street, not Fifth Avenue, New Bond Street, it is...
Big setback for Gautam Adani, Kenya cancels Rs 6216 crore deal with Adani Group due to...
Viral video: Man’s jugaad to stay warm in winter will leave you SHOCKED, watch here
Hinduja Group firm gets key approval for acquisition of Anil Ambani's debt-ridden Reliance Capital
Shloka Mehta looks stunning in white floral kurta as she clicked with Akash Ambani, it costs Rs....
Who is Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani's nephew, accused of bribery, fraud charges in US?
PayPal down: Several users face issue while logging into accounts, say 'no one could...'
IND vs AUS: Jasprit Bumrah, Pat Cummins eye historic captaincy milestone in Perth Test
BGT 2024, Ind vs Aus: Can Shubhman Gill be the new Cheteshwar Pujara? Is he really ready?
The Ultimate Guide to Luxury Gifting: Discover Heirloom Pashmina by Pashmina.com
Effortless Relocations: The Perks Of Professional Removalists In Melbourne
Watch: Pakistan fan with 'Imran Khan' poster asked to leave Hobart stadium in Australia
International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu for...
What is demisexuality? Everything you need to know about this lesser-known sexual orientation
WATCH: World’s shortest woman meets world’s tallest woman, video goes viral
IND vs AUS 1st Test: Predicted playing XIs, Perth weather forecast and pitch report
IND vs AUS: When will Rohit Sharma join India squad? Check latest update
'Scam 2024': Diljit Dosanjh lookalike pranks people on Pune streets, video goes viral
Delhi Air Pollution: Centre announces staggered work timings for govt employees; check details
Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Jio loses nearly 80 lakh subscribers in just 30 days, BSNL adds...
IND vs AUS, 1st Test Dream11 prediction: Fantasy cricket tips for India vs Australia match
This country has most expensive passport in world, not US, UK, UAE, it costs Rs...
Amitabh Bachchan opens up on Aishwarya Rai-Abhishek Bachchan divorce rumours
Amid rising air pollution, Delhi-NCR's crematorium records cleanest air; check AQI here
Revolutionising Medical Imaging: Venudhar Rao Hajari’s impact on healthcare technology
Abhishek Gupta and Onevision Media: Scaling brands on social media
Video shows Korean girl eating jalebi for first time, her reaction to Indian sweet goes viral
Cristiano Ronaldo confirms THIS YouTube star as his next guest, says, 'Will break Internet'
Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP releases first list of 11 candidates for 2025 polls
Adani Group's FIRST REACTION after US indicts Gautam Adani in alleged bribery case
Instagram introduces new feature, know how to reset app's algorithm, change your feed
No mention of Aaradhya Bachchan in Amitabh Bachchan's post on birthdays, it happened recently
Oppo Find X8 and X8 Pro launched in India, check specifications, price, other details
Charges against Gautam Adani: BJP's scathing attack on Congress, questions timing of development
Jasprit Bumrah's BIG statement on taking up Perth test captaincy, says, 'tactically better...'
Blackout on breaks: Company imposes no-sick-leave policy until 2025
Drug-laden terrorists on India's western, northern frontiers
Mohammad Shami trolls Sanjay Manjrekar over IPL auction bid prediction, says, 'Baba ki...'
IND vs AUS Test: When and where to watch 1st match of Border-Gavaskar trophy, know details here
CAQM amends Grap Stages III, IV, enforces stricter measures in Delhi-NCR amid air pollution woes
Malayalam actor Meghanathan passes away at 60 after suffering from...
Adani Green Energy's FIRST reaction after US indicts Gautam Adani in alleged bribery case
'Keep me out of...': Pakistani Instagram star Mathira on MMS leak controversy
Delhi Air Pollution: AQI marginally improves from 'severe' to 'very poor' category
Aishwarya Rai’s remark on Amitabh Bachchan’s ‘habits’ goes viral amid divorce rumours with Abhishek
'I love him, he loves me! Why hurt...': Rekha's bold confession about Amitabh Bachchan goes viral
Meet man, IITian who built Rs 5493 crore firm, has this Mukesh Ambani connection, he is from...
Shillong Teer Results TODAY November 21, 2024 Live Updates: Check winning numbers here
‘I didn’t have time to…’: When AR Rahman revealed having ‘agreement’ before marriage to Saira Banu
Amitabh Bachchan praises Abhishek Bachchan's new film, netizens ask 'kash ye Aishwarya...'
Viral video: Woman's sizzling belly dance to 'Namak' impresses internet, watch
Hardik Pandya banned, Mumbai Indians captain to miss first match of IPL 2025 due to...
Meet man who studied at IIM, IIT, then built Rs 1160000000 company, got inspired by…
Meet woman, who quit as dentist for UPSC exam, became IAS officer with AIR...
Viral video: Little girl steals hearts with her adorable dance to 'o meri cutie', watch
Gautam Adani's company signs another pact to acquire 100% stake in...
CBSE Date Sheet 2025 announced: Class 10, 12 board exams to begin from...
Apollena: Aditi Sharma on how space-based drama encourage young girls, says 'no matter how many...'
Is Mia Khalifa dating ex-Man City star Julian Alvarez? Former adult star says 'It certainly...'