Galloping bulls seen taking Nifty 10K this month

From the 9000 mark it hit for the first time in March 2007, it took Nifty only two-and-a-half months to touch 9600.

In contrast, it took almost three years for the index to cover 1,000 points from 8000 to 9000 mark.

So, how soon will the index hit the 10000 milestone?

Going by the market mavens, the mark may be achieved by this month-end.

They add a caveat, though: Global events shouldn't play spoilsport.

Deepak Jasani, head-retail research, HDFC Securities, told DNA Money, "Nifty may touch the 10000 mark by the end of June/middle of July, given the index is advancing 100 points every week since it touched the 9000 mark. Hopes of earnings recovery and liquidity flows from domestic and foreign sources could drive valuations up and propel the index if global events are conducive."

The index's trajectory over the next 12 months will be determined by the earnings growth companies will deliver during the fiscal even as the prospects for sectors such as FMCG, banking and financials are looking up.

"Markets have delivered 17-18% returns in 2017 year to date. We don't think similar returns will be possible in the second half of 2017. We are positive on financials, cement, FMCG companies," said Rakesh Tarway, head of research, Reliance Securities, told DNA Money.

The rally is on the back of liquidity deluge by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who bought equities worth Rs 51,518 crore year to date and strong support by domestic players.

Stable inflation, implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), lower crude prices and a stronger rupee would keep the party going, analysts said.

Jaikishan Parmar, senior equity research analyst, Angel Broking, said, "With obscure prospects of real estate as an asset class, retail investors are more likely to pour money into equity and mutual funds. This is evident in mutual fund inflows of Rs 9,429 crore in April, which is highest in the last four months."

Experts say they saw the index's run up to 10000 back in 2016 itself.

"Looking back, the quarterly charts of Nifty had clearly indicated that the index would hit the level of 10000 in coming quarters," Shrikant S Chouhan, senior vice-president - technical research, Kotak Securities.

However, some experts say that correction is hovering over Dalal Street and the indices could sink, should there be any negative events globally or if company earnings did not rebound.

So, Nifty's run up to 10000 could encounter resistance at several levels before the next earnings season.

"While the possibilities of Nifty touching 10000 in the near term are quite high, one cannot deny that covering another 300-350 points would not be easy. Any outlandish targets for the near term are out of question at this point, however, we could see the index nearing 11000 by end of 2017," Sanjiv Bhasin, executive vice-president, IIFL, told DNA Money.

PEAK AFTER PEAK

• The rally is on the back of liquidity deluge by foreign investors who bought equities worth Rs 51,518 crore year to date
   
• Stable inflation, GST, low crude prices and a strong rupee would keep party going, experts say