Vodafone Idea may lag peers in 4G coverage

The largest telecom player Vodafone Idea may have plans to increase its 4G coverage in the country to 80 % by March 2020, but analysts say the company would lag behind peers by at least a year.

Akshaya Moondra, CFO, Vodafone Idea, on Thursday said by March 2020, we will be able to have a 4G population of about 80% and the capacity increase from the current levels to 2.5 times. By March 2019, the target is to reach 70 % for 4G coverage.

Research firm Ambit Insights in an analyst note said Vodafone Idea's capacity expansion goal is an unambitious 2.5x of current capacity, assuming that Vodafone Idea maintains current network utilisation, its network traffic in FY21E would be 80% of Jio's current data traffic.

"Vodafone Idea will trail both rivals, which are investing more aggressively to create capacity. The company's focus on synergy fructification is likely to cost its revenue market share....network integration will be a challenge given the breakneck pace with which the company is likely to proceed," it said.

Based on current data usage, Reliance Jio's data consumption is already 3x of Vodafone Idea. This would imply that Vodafone Idea shall reach in FY21E where Jio stands today, the note added.

Analysts at Motilal Oswal say despite a target of 80 % 4G coverage by FY20, Vodafone Idea would still lag peers by about 12 months. Though, the company plans to deploy efficient network equipment like dynamic spectrum refarming, ultra-broadband and Massive MIMO technologies with an aim to reduce capex and opex.

Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have targeted over 90% coverage in the next six months, which will put Vodafone Idea behind by 12 months.

Vodafone Idea is also exploring the sale of its fibre network of over 156,000 km (intra and intercity routes) and plans to play a role in independent fibre sharing entity in the future to restrict incremental capex, the note by Motilal Oswal said.

The entry of Reliance Jio has disrupted the market with its free voice calls and dirt cheap data tariffs. The financial health of the telecom industry has taken a nosedive since then triggering a consolidation phase.