India vs New Zealand ICC World Test Championship Lord's final all but certain after Gabba win, THIS is the scenario

The Indian national cricket team created history by winning the Brisbane Test by three wickets and winning the four-Test series against Australia 2-1. This was the Indian cricket team's second consecutive series win in Australia and this has all but sealed their spot in the ICC World Test Championship final which will be played in Lord's in June 2021. India only has one more series lined up in their current ICC World Test Championship cycle and it will end with a four-Test series against England that will begin on February 5 in Chennai. India is currently on top of the ICC World Test Championship with 71.7 percentage points while New Zealand is second with 70 percentage points. Australia has slipped to third with 69.2 percentage points and is facing an uphill task along with England. 

For Australia to secure their spot in the final, they will have to beat South Africa 3-0 and on current form and recent experiences in South Africa, that is looking very hard. For England, they will have to win five consecutive Tests (one against Sri Lanka and all four against India) in order to seal a spot in Lord's. However, that is a highly difficult proposition considering that England has not won in India for the last eight years. The equation for India is simple. If they win the series against England 3-0 and 4-0, they will automatically qualify. The second spot is a tough fight, for both Australia and New Zealand are in the fray with England having only a minimal chance of qualification.

What Australia and New Zealand need to do?

For Australia, their three-Test series against South Africa is a do-or-die situation. If they lose the series 1-2, 0-3 or even 1-0, then it will not be enough to get them over New Zealand. Many outlets have mistakingly reported that New Zealand has finished their cycle of the ICC World Test Championship but even they have one series remaining. Their two Tests against Bangladesh, which was scheduled for August 2020 was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. This series might be played at a later date and if New Zealand wins that series 1-0 or 2-0, then they will seal qualification. If New Zealand loses to Bangladesh, then Australia could barge through.

Australia has only one chance. If Bangladesh upsets New Zealand and England beat India 1-2, then they can seal qualification. In addition, they must beat South Africa and avoid a potentially drawn series. 

If India beat England and South Africa beat Australia, then India will play New Zealand in Lord's in June 2021. It might set up a brilliant plot where India will be aiming to take revenge on New Zealand for their loss in the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup semi-final in Old Trafford.