ICC World Test Championship: What must India, Australia and England do to face New Zealand in final?

Australia's postponement of their three-Test tour to South Africa has meant that New Zealand has become the first team to qualify for the final of the ICC World Test Championship that will be played at Lord's in June 2021. New Zealand enjoyed a dominant run at home, winning series against India, Pakistan and West Indies while they drew their away series against Sri Lanka. However, the Kiwis suffered a 3-0 thrashing against Australia while their tour to Bangladesh was also canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. With New Zealand now assured of a spot in the final, the race intensifies for the second spot in the final.

India will take on England in the four-Test series that will begin from February 5 in Chennai. A total of 120 points is up for grabs and this is the final series in the current ICC World Test Championship cycle for both sides. England arrives in India on the back of a 2-0 win against Sri Lanka while India is on the ultimate high after winning the series in Australia for the second consecutive time. With only four Tests remaining, either one of England and India might qualify for the final. If there is a drawn result in the series between India and England, then Australia might just about get into the final through the back door. However, one thing is certain in that Australia's direct qualification is not in their hands.

What must India, England, Australia do?

For India, if they win the series 2-1, 3-0 or 4-0 against England, they will qualify for the final and play New Zealand in Lord's. For England, they have to win by a margin of at least 3-0 or 4-0 in order to qualify for the final. However, that seems to be highly impossible considering England's record in India. In the last series in 2016, England was thrashed 4-0 in the five-match series. It has been nearly 38 years since an opposition won three or more Tests in India and that was the West Indies in 1983.

Australia, technically, still has a chance. If India wins the series 1-0 or if the series is drawn 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, then Australia will play New Zealand in Lord's. Thus, for Australia, they will be hoping England either win two games and lose two games or that all the Test matches in India are high-scoring draws. At the moment, India is looking strong and they are more-or-less likely to play New Zealand in Lord's in June 2021.