Dunki vs Salaar: Trade experts predict who will win box office clash between Shah Rukh Khan and Prabhas

2023 is drawing to a close but not before it serves up the biggest box office clash of the year. If Gadar 2 vs OMG 2 had people hyped, then Dunki vs Salaar has taken that excitement to another level. Two big films from two tried-and-tested filmmakers featuring the biggest superstars in the country are releasing on the same weekend. And while the genres are sufficiently different for both to have a chance at succeeding, the so-called clash is bound to affect their businesses. DNA spoke to film trade experts to understand how this bumper Christmas clash may play out.

How the Dunki vs Salaar clash came to be

Dunki, directed by Rajkumar Hirani, stars Shah Rukh Khan in the lead. It is the actor’s third film of the year, after the blockbusters Pathaan and Jawan, and is naturally a much-hyped venture. Given Shah Rukh’s run-of-form, Hirani’s track record, and the film’s theme on illegal immigration, it is one of the most anticipated Bollywood films of the year. The film had selected the Christmas release last year itself right after its announcement.

Salaar, on the other hand, brings Prabhas together with Prithviraj Sukumaran, and is directed by KGF-fame Prasanth Neel. While Prabhas’ last few films have not worked at the box office, the bumper combination of the actor and director and the action genre has made this film much awaited. The film was slated to release in September earlier but in August, the release was deferred to December 22, a day after Dunki hits the screens.

The clash will mean Dunki and Salaar may not get record openings

Both of Shah Rukh’s last two films earned Rs 100 crore worldwide on their opening days, while setting new domestic records for Hindi films. Similarly, Prabhas’ Adipurush also had a record opening before negative word of mouth sank it. Clearly, the star power exists. But experts say the clash will hurt. Film trade analyst Ramesh Bala says, “I’m sure compared to solo releases, the opening weekend will come down a bit. Both the films will eat into each other’s businesses and are unlikely to post record numbers at the box office. Records are usually broken by solo releases and two big films coming out at the same time will see divided shows. So, it won’t be the Jawan, Pathaan, or RRR-level opening that these films will get. But in the long run, provided word of mouth is good, they can recover and post good numbers. That depends on the content.”

It’s North for Dunki and South for Salaar as of now

Shah Rukh is easily the bigger star in the Hindi belt and hence, his film will be able to secure more screens in the north. Trade analyst Atul Mohan says, “In the north, Dunki will remain the first choice for the exhibitors in the north. It’s a no-brainer. The film is coming after two huge hits for Shah Rukh while Salaar is coming on the back of consecutive flops for Prabhas. That makes giving Shah Rukh’s film more shows a better business decision, at least for the opening weekend. After that, it depends on word of mouth.”

On the other hand, Prasanth Neel has a hold in the Kannada speaking territories while Prabhas is a superstar in the Telugu states with good standing in the other two south markets as well. Ramesh Bala explains, “Dunki has no Tamil and Telugu dubbed versions. That means it won’t be able to penetrate the tier-2 and tier-3 centres in the south quite like Jawan did. Similarly, for Salaar, Punjab will be tough since Dunki’s plot is set there. Prasanth Neel’s last film KGF did well in that territory and Salaar may miss out on that kind of response. But both films cater to different kinds of audience. That diversification can save them to a certain extent.”

How Dunki has an edge over Salaar

But some trade experts and exhibitors believe that Shah Rukh’s Dunki has an edge over Salaar, even though the latter is a mass action film, the genre primed to rule at the box office. Atul Mohan argues, “There have been a lot of action blockbusters this year, starting with Pathaan and then Gadar 2, Jawan, and finally Animal. So the family audience has been waiting for their kind of film. To an extent, Rocky Aur Rani...showed that family film can do good numbers in this time. That may work in Dunki’s favour. Also, Rajkumar Hirani’s brand of cinema has always been good. That gives some faith to the audience.”

Exhibitors, too, concur and say that Salaar will ride on Prabhas’ star power ad register a huge opening day. But in the long run, Dunki may edge it behind. “Rajkumar Hirani’s films have known to have longer runs than action films. That is Dunki’s advantage. On top of it, Shah Rukh’s overseas dominance is unmatched,” says an exhibitor from Delhi.

How the two films eventually do at the box office is beyond anyone’s forecast or prediction. With advance booking set to open soon for both Dunki and Salaar, the early signs will be in soon. But the final verdict will be delivered by the only adjudicator cinema has ever known – the viewers. For that, we shall have to wait for the Christmas weekend.