DNA Explainer: What the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan means for terrorist groups that target India

The Taliban will be forming a government in Afghanistan before the 20^th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks that triggered the US invasion and its ouster.

This is not a desirable news for India considering that the first Taliban regime made Afghanistan a haven for terror outfits from across the world and India.

With Taliban gaining control of all Afghan strategic assets, several reports of alarm have emerged for India.

Taliban has been releasing thousands of terrorists who were imprisoned in Afghanistan and overseen by the US troops. Reports suggest that around 5,000 to 7,000 such prisoners have already been released from Pul-e-Charkhi, Afghanistan’s largest prison which housed a maximum-security enclosure for prisoners from terror outfits like al-Qaeda apart from seasoned Taliban members.

More specifically alarming for India are reports that Pakistan-based terror groups that focus on creating instability in Kashmir have active operations in Afghanistan and are looking to attack India and Indian interests. A report published by French think-tank Centre for Analysis of Terrorism last week that there is likely to be “a more operational coordination between Pakistan-supported groups like the LET & JEM and the Taliban.”

In fact, the US is reassessing previous estimates of how likely is Afghanistan to again become a hub of terrorism which Taliban’s sudden rise to power.

These reports are of grave concern for India given that Taliban has undeniable connections to terrorist groups which have performed brutal attacks on Indian soil in the past.

History of Taliban’s link to terror attacks in India

The Taliban, as well as Afghanistan, have historical links to terrorism in India. Pakistani terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami which have targeted India were created in Afghanistan.

The most famous link stems from the 1999 Indian Airlines flight IC 814 hijacking by four Pakistani terrorists who took the airplane to Kandahar in Afghanistan. The Taliban regime was vital to the operation, giving the terrorists safe haven and protecting the asset from any counter-terror mission by the Indian armed forces.

With the backing of Taliban, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen terrorists were able to secure the release of three terrorists imprisoned by the Indian government. One of these three was Maulana Masood Azhar who founded Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), the terror organization behind the 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament as well as the Pulwama terror attack in 2019.

Disadvantages for India

India, along with most of the permanent and non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, has called on Taliban to ensure that Afghanistan is not used for terror activities.

The US also has an agreement with Taliban to not let terror organizations work out of Afghanistan. While the US troops withdrew relying on this promise, there is hardly any clarity on the enforcement of the deal or future oversight.

Terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad could now operate from Afghanistan instead of being restricted to a few regions of Pakistan.

This could also mean that such terror organisations could shift their training camps out of India’s reach to take out anti-terror activities like the Balakot airstrike which destroyed a JeM training camp in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region.

Taliban’s rise will also mean that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) will have greater control over the area. ISI has links with major Taliban factions like the Haqqani group which has targeted Indian assets in Afghanistan in the past.