'Rassi jal gayi...': Decoding Mayawati's strategic outburst against Congress

The assembly elections in December are the semi-final before the Lok Sabha polls. If Congress manages to wrest at least one state from BJP, it will be a huge morale booster for them. While Congress is in pole position in Rajasthan, it is locked in a tight battle in  MP and Chhattisgarh. Mayawati by aligning with Ajit Jogi may have dealt a body blow to Congress prospects in  Chhattisgarh. 

It also has a 6% vote in MP, based on last Assembly election. Hence, Mayawati fighting separately may well ensure Congress falling few points behind BJP. Hence BSP becomes all important in the political equation. One thing which needs to be remembered is Mayawati is yet to announce candidates for the majority of seats in MP. 

Hence there is always a chance of reconciliation if Congress gives BSP a little bit extra. So all may not be lost for BSP-Congress alliance particularly in Madhya Pradesh.  (Image- PTI)

BSP didn't win a single seat in the last Lok Sabha elections although it won the third highest number of votes overall. BSP continues to retain a core vote  bank of Dalits but it isn't getting votes from other caste groups, which would push them beyond the finishing line. In a first past the post system, BSP despite a decent vote share hasn't managed to come up tops.

Hence now Mayawati is forced to go for tie-up with other parties. The problem for Mayawati which she even mentioned on Wednesday is that while BSP is very good in transferring votes, it doesn't get votes from other parties. Hence BSP suffers net loss in alliances. 

Hence Mayawati is deeply skeptical of forging alliances. But after three successive electoral losses, her options are limited. She may be able to put certain amount of pressure leveraging her core vote bank but she can't press too much, because other political parties are also aware of her compulsions. Thus this is a  game of one-upmanship, where Mayawati needs to be careful not to show her hand too quickly. 

Mayawati has little to lose in the Assembly polls, hence she can take a much strong stance. Come Lok Sabha polls, she may have to mellow down her stance. Today's olive branch towards the Gandhis' despite attacking Congress may be a tactical move to keep a future path of rapprochement open.  (Image- AFP)

Urging the Congress to show magnanimity, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav said on Wednesday that any delay in this regard might prompt other parties to declare their candidates for the upcoming assembly elections.

His comments come hours after Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati announced that her party would contest the Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh assembly elections either on its own or in an alliance with regional parties, but not with the Congress.

Speaking to reporters, Yadav said, "I am saying even today that the Congress should show its large-heartedness, and it should contest elections by taking along all the political parties who have similar thoughts and ideology." "If there is any delay, then there is a possibility that other parties may declare their candidates. After this, they (Congress) will be levelling allegations that they colluded with the BJP," Yadav said. 

Akhilesh has already said that he is willing to sacrifice some seats looking at the bigger picture. But can he convince another UP ka Ladka Rahul Gandhi to be more magnanimous? We will know soon.  (Image- PTI)

In a negotiation, there is always the risk of conceding too much, and also the risk of losing everything by striking a very hardline stance. An able negotiator knows where to draw the line, where to call the bluff. 

With Congress down to 44 seats in Lok Sabha and in power in only 4 states, Congress doesn't have too much of options. However, the party is in good footing in Rajasthan. According to exit polls, Congress and BJP are in a very close race. BSP's support is likely to tip the scale for Congress in MP. Whereas in Rajasthan, Congress is likely to win on its own. 

Hence, Congress may adopt a mixed strategy of not yielding much ground in Rajasthan and being slightly conceding ground in Madhya Pradesh. 

There may be pressure from other Mahagathbandhan constituents on Congress to make amends with BSP, as a tie-up in Uttar Pradesh for Lok Sabha is an absolute must for the opposition to harbour any chance of unsettling the Modi government. All in all, Rahul Gandhi has to play his cards well while dealing with an experienced political hand like Mayawati.  (Image- PTI)

Mayawati virtually slammed Digvijaya Singh accusing him of being a BJP agent on Wednesday. It is legitimate to assume that any possible future seat-sharing talks with BSP will not feature Digvijaya Singh, at least for MP. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is trying to put a unified face after a long time. Thus Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijaya Singh are all equals for now, being given specific jobs by Rahul Gandhi. 

The big question is that will Congress ask Digvijaya Singh to take a backseat to win over Mayawati. Or Digvijaya Singh is too precious an asset for Congress in MP? These are all tricky questions and Rahul Gandhi needs to get his calculation bang on to ensure a Congress win in MP. 

So for now, it looks like Mayawati may be angry with Congress, but we haven't heard the last of BSP-Congress relationship.  (Image- PTI)