BJP-led NDA to emerge as single largest bloc in LS polls but may fall short of majority, predicts Zee 24 Taas survey

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as the single largest bloc but is likely to fall short of absolute majority in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, a pre-poll survey by Zee Group's Marathi news channel Zee 24 Taas has predicted. 

According to the survey, the NDA is likely to win 264 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, dates of which are yet to be announced. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), on the other hand, may get 165 seats. Other parties who have not yet declared their allegiance and independents are likely to win the remaining 114 seats. 

The half-way mark in the Lok Sabha is 272.

The major chunk of BJP seats will come from north Indian states. Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lower House of the Parliament, may fetch the BJP 50 MPs. Bihar, Maharashtra and Gujarat are other states where the BJP-led alliance will emerge on the top with 28, 30 and 24 seats respectively. 

While the BJP has formed an alliance with JD(U) and LJP in Bihar, it is contesting Maharashtra in partnership with Shiv Sena. 

The Congress is likely to score big in Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Karnataka where it is in power. 

Here's a forecast of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 from major states: 

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats

BJP - 50 
Congress - 5 
SP-BSP - 25

Maharashtra: 48 seats

BJP + Shiv Sena + Others - 30 
Congress + NCP + Others - 17
(BJP – 16, Shiv Sena – 14, NCP – 10, Congress – 7, Others – 1) 

Bihar: 40 seats

NDA - 28 
Congress - 10 
Others - 2

Karnataka: 28 seats

BJP - 8 
Congress - 20

Gujarat: 26 seats

BJP - 24 
Congress - 2

Jharkhand: 14 seats

BJP - 7 
Congress - 7

Punjab: 13 seats

BJP - 1 
Congress - 10 
Others - 2

Chhattisgarh: 11 seats

BJP - 4 
Congress - 7 

Haryana: 10 seats

BJP - 6 
Congress - 3 
Others - 1

Jammu and Kashmir: 6 seats

BJP - 3 
Congress - 0 
National Conference - 2 
PDP - 1

Analysis after 5-state election results 

Zee News had tied up with VMR to analyse BJP’s percentage of votes in Assembly Elections last year and mapped it with Lok Sabha numbers from the past to see how the numbers could tilt.

Analysing the state polls data, ZEE-VMR Analysis predicted that BJP could end up with 212 seats, 70 fewer than their tally in 2014 while the Congress would increase to 96, 52 more than 2014. The NDA ought to end up with 293, while the UPA could get 233 and others non-NDA, non-UPA parties could end up with 17. Of course all analyses come with riders and we will only know the truth when the results are counted in 2019. 

BJP strategy

With airstrikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) training camp in Pakistan's Balakot following the Pulwama terror attack, the BJP plans to make nationalism its main poll plank, besides development, sources told Zee Media. In recent rallies after Balakot strike, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used the action against terrorists to highlight his government's resolve to hit back at those who target the nation from inside and outside. He has also attacked the opposition for seeking evidence on the airstrikes. 

According to sources, the Indian Air Force strikes on terror camps will be a major election issue for the BJP as the country goes into poll mode. Lyricist Prasoon Joshi has been roped in to write a theme song for BJP campaign focused on nationalism. 

While BJP has come out with a campaign tagline of "Namumkin ab mumkin hai" (Impossible is possible now), the BJP may also launch another campaign slogan of "Modi hai to mumkin hai" (It is possible because of Modi).