Congress, BJP set to make a return in UP

In Mulayam-weary Mayawati country, national parties are recasting the political template. Suddenly and inexplicably, there’s a buzz about the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh that could upset the calculations of the Third and Fourth Fronts in the 2009 polls.

The palpable mood in favour of national parties comes as a huge surprise in a state that sent both packing two years ago. UP, we thought, had gone the Tamil Nadu way with regional titans, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party, emerging as the only two poles of reference. No longer. The fight this time is clearly four-cornered and the Congress and BJP cannot be dismissed as also-rans.

It would be foolhardy to make a seat prediction in the complex, multi-cornered battles in most constituencies but there is near unanimity among politicians, analysts and the common people that the Congress and BJP will register unexpected gains.

If voter management on polling day is good, they could increase their 2004 seat tally of nine and 10, respectively. At the very least, their vote share will go up from pathetic levels of the 2007 assembly polls (8.6% and 16.9%, respectively), making them relevant again in this heartland state that sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha.

There are two reasons for the mood shift. One is the crumbling of SP’s vote base, particularly Muslims. The other is the swing away from BSP of the Brahmin and other establishment votes.

Says Siraj Iqbal, who runs a hospital in Lucknow and is chairman of the Centre for Objective Research and Development that looks into issues of concerns for the Muslim community, “Mulayam Singh Yadav shot himself in the foot by aligning with Kalyan Singh. Muslims are upset and as they see him as a fading force, they are moving away from him.’’

According to Athar Siddiqi, a social activist in Lucknow, the Muslim vote could scatter. It could go to the BSP or Congress depending on the candidate. Or it could stay at home in sheer disillusionment at being used by political parties as a vote-bank.

Admitting that the latter could help the BJP in some constituencies, Siddiqi said Muslims are no longer seized by a sense of urgency to do tactical voting against the saffron party.

While the BSP remains the frontrunner in UP and is likely to garner most seats, Mayawati’s performance in 2009 could fall short of expectations she raised by her sweeping victory in the 2007 assembly polls. This is because the Brahmin element has moved out of the historic social alliance she crafted between the lower and upper ends of the caste hierarchy.

Ram Kumar, who runs a forum for Dalit human rights, Dynamic Action Group, offers this explanation for the development: Brahmin support for BSP in 2007 was merely a political and bureaucratic alliance aimed at removing the Mulayam Singh government. “That purpose has been achieved. There is no convergence of interests any more,’’ he said.

Gyan Prakash Tiwari, a political activist who works with Dalit groups, felt that a good Brahmin nominee of the BSP will attract his caste votes but this time, Mayawati will have to rely more on her own Dalit support base and some Muslim votes. He said her success in 2009 depends on voter turnout. “If it is low, she has an advantage as she can mobilise her Dalit voters,’’ he pointed out.