Is fear of BJP’s defeat keeping Narendra Modi in Gujarat?

Is it fear of defeat that is keeping BJP's star campaigner, chief minister Narendra Modi, away from the campaign trail in the five poll-bound states? One doesn't need a psephologist to tell that the BJP is nowhere near coming to power in any of the five states where the campaign is currently underway.

"He is wary of giving his detractors more ammunition to use against him. In the past, when BJP has lost after Modi has campaigned, he has invariably been held responsible for the party's defeat. If he needs to rise to the next level in national politics, he needs to shed this image," a political observer in the BJP said.

Another source in the party said it is unlikely that Modi will campaign in Uttar Pradesh or Uttarakhand now but he might make his mark in urban and semi-urban seats of Goa as BJP is at least a front-runner here. The Congress is secretly clapping in glee at the BJP's quandary though its leaders are officially maintaining that they want Modi to campaign.

"In the past, wherever Modi has campaigned BJP has lost and post-poll analysis has revealed he had a negative impact on the party's prospects. Take Rajasthan or Maharashtra, for example; and of course the series of defeat on seats he campaigned for in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009. In fact, we want him to go to UP and meet his dear friend, Sanjay Joshi," a senior Congress leader merrily mocked.

However, his loyalists in Gujarat BJP brush off this argument and insist that the CM is still mighty upset with the national leadership for inducting Sanjay Joshi in UP. "He does not take snubs lightly. He will go as far as needed to get his way. You will recall that when Haren Pandya refused to vacate the Ellisbridge constituency for him, he actually got himself admitted in Civil Hospital and Pandya was eventually denied a ticket," one party functionary said, almost taking pride in the way Modi "arm-twists" the BJP's national leadership.

"The whole stunt is to ensure that they do not underestimate him. They (national leaders like LK Advani, Jaitley, Swaraj, Gadkari etc) are a problem, but it is better to deal with them now rather than later," he added, supremely confident that 'later' is when the Gujarat CM will be elevated to national politics as party president or prime minister.