Maharashtra floor test explained in numbers: What would happen if Uddhav Thackeray faces floor test tomorrow?

Eknath Shinde, the leader of the Shiv Sena rebel block, on Wednesday said they will reach Mumbai tomorrow. He said the block has the support of 50 MLAs, including more than 40 Sena MLAs. He said he has the two-third majority, enough to topple the Uddhav Thackeray government and circumvent the anti-defection law.  

"We will reach Mumbai tomorrow. 50 MLAs are with us. We've 2/3 majority. We are not worried about any floor test. We will pass all things and no one can stop us. In democracy majority matters and we have that," Shinde said in Guwahati.

Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari on Wednesday ordered Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to take the floor test on Thursday, June 30. Shiv Sena chief whip Sunil Prabhu called the test ordered by the Governor illegal and challenged it in the Supreme Court, which will hear the case today. 

The Deputy Speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly has sent disqualification notices to 16 rebel MLAs, including Shinde. They moved the Supreme Court last week against the decision. The court has given them time till July 12 to respond to the notice. 

Prabhu's counsel said the floor test was illegal as it cannot include those facing disqualification. "I am only requesting a listing today evening. Otherwise, the matter will become infructuous. Votes which cannot be counted will be counted. The entire exercise will be futile," the counsel added.

Can Uddhav Thackeray pass the floor test tomorrow?

If Uddhav Thackeray takes tomorrow, going by the current calculation, he will likely lose. Shinde reportedly has the support of 40 MLAs. This means Thackeray's support base in the assembly has shrunk to 15. The MVA government has 169 MLAs in the Assembly whose half-way mark is 144. If as many MLAs vote against Thackeray, his government will lose the majority support. The Shiv Sena had said last week it was in touch with over 20 rebel MLAs who would vote in Thackeray's favour.

The Uddhav Thackeray government can survive in only two conditions -- these 20 MLAs vote in its favour or the 16 MLAs are disqualified. The anti-defection law will not kick in if Shinde shows the support of 37 MLAs. If the Sena could break away these 20 MLAs, it will still have a clear majority. It can then enforce the anti-defection law to disqualify the remaining rebels from the Assembly. If the 16 MLAs are disqualified in July, the move will have a similar impact on Shiv Sena's fate. 

Both these scenarios will help Sena crush the rebellion.

The only option with the rebel MLAs is to vote en masse against the Thackeray government. If the number drops below 37, they could be disqualified, which means they won't be able to vote should the BJP tries to form a government. This would mean the state will have to wait for the bypoll results for the formation of the government. 

With inputs from ANI