The Rise and Times of BJP

On April 17, 1999, the BJP-led NDA took a vote of confidence that had been forced upon it by AIADMK's pullout. Its chief J Jayalalithaa had withdrawn support to the 13-month-old government because Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee refused to withdraw corruption cases against her, and dismiss her rival DMK's government in Tamil Nadu. The ruling coalition at the Centre secured 269 votes to 270. Vajpayee lost power by just one vote, on one of the most dramatic days in Parliament's history. Stretchers were brought into the Lok Sabha lobbies so that even ailing members could vote in the fiercely critical contest.

Nineteen years later, on March 16, 2018, another southern ally, TDP, pulled out of the current BJP-led NDA after failing to secure special category status for Andhra Pradesh. Its chief N Chandrababu Naidu followed his regional rival YRSCP in bringing a no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government sits pretty.

Even without the 16 TDP MPs, it has a comfortable majority in the current 536-member Lok Sabha, and the motions, if and when accepted, are most likely to be defeated. BJP alone has the support of 272 MPs. The 41 MPs of other NDA constituents take the number to 313 — well above the current halfway mark of 268.

Naidu took a calculated political risk, knowing full well that he cannot go with Congress that's seen as responsible for Andhra Pradesh's bifurcation. The decision to carve out a separate state of Telangana had moved massive resources from Andhra Pradesh and triggered the demand for special category status. The two pending no-confidence motions also target voters in Andhra Pradesh, ahead of next year's state elections.

BJP leaders say TDP's exit is as an opportunity for it to expand in Andhra Pradesh. The party did win Haryana on its own in 2014. Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said, "It was unfortunate. We regret TDP's departure. There were no issues with PM Modi or with BJP. The dispute was only about special status to Andhra Pradesh. We will still stick to our promise and grant the same.''

But TDP is not the only NDA ally that has parted ways or shown dissension. A week before its pullout, NDA had lost small Bihar ally Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S), led by Jitan Ram Manjhi. The former Chief Minister, who is the only legislator of his party, switched to Bihar's Opposition bloc, led by Lalu Yadav's RJD on the charge that he had been neglected. There had been strains between HAM-S and BJP after JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar broke his alliance with RJD and Congress last year to form a new government in Bihar with BJP.

On March 19, Nitish himself warned that he will not back forces that divide the society, in what was seen as a veiled attack on ally BJP whose leaders have been seen making communally controversial remarks in the state he rules. "Our policy is very clear in this regard. We cannot support those trying to divide the society. We firmly believe in social harmony and taking everyone together," Nitish said in Patna.

This was a day after another ally, LJP chief and Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan, told BJP to win over the confidence of all sections of the society and change its perception towards minorities. "PM Modi and his government at the Centre has done a lot of work for them, but the viewpoint needs to be changed," said Paswan. Nitish also strongly pitched for a special category status for Bihar, but unlike Naidu, stopped short of issuing any threat. He said he has not given up on his demand for Bihar "even for a moment."

The Centre formally gives the status only to hilly and N-E states where rugged terrain impedes investment and growth. In monetary terms, it means 90:10 funding for all centrally sponsored schemes for five years. For other states, the funding pattern is 60:40. JD(U) clarified that it is part of NDA and is not going anywhere, but reminded the government that its demand is pending. "We are very much with NDA. But our claims of special category state status for Bihar, supported by BJP and denied by the Raghuram Rajan committee in 2013, still stands," said JD(U) spokesperson KC Tyagi.

Union Minister and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) chief Upendra Kushwaha might also be sulking. Many feel his meeting with RJD president Lalu Prasad Yadav on Friday singled his dissatisfaction with NDA. In January, the Lok Sabha MP from Bihar's Karakat had shared the dias with senior RJD leaders. The junior HRD minister had even formed a human chain against the "deteriorating education sector" in NDA-ruled Bihar.

BJP's troubles with its regional partners follow its shock defeats in all three Lok Sabha by-elections last month that have pushed the Opposition's attempt to band together ahead of next year's general elections. SP, backed by its arch-rival BSP, snatched BJP's two of the most prestigious Lok Sabha seats — UP's Gorakhpur and Phulpur. UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had himself held Gorakhpur for five terms and vacated the seat to head the state government after BJP's sweep in last year's Assembly elections. His now-deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya held Phulpur — a seat BJP won for the first time in 2014. BJP also lost Bihar's Araria on the same day. In fact, in 20 Lok Sabha bypolls held since 2014, the party has won only three.

When Modi stormed to power at the Centre in 2014, BJP ruled seven states in the country. Four years later, the party is ruling, either by itself or as part of an alliance, 22 of India's 29 states — an unprecedented electoral feat. The party's current tally of 272 in the Lok Sabha looks comfortable, but it is actually down from 282 it had won in 2014. And the 41 MPs of NDA constituents include 18 from sulking Shiv Sena that has criticised Modi severely and announced it would not run in next year's national elections in alliance with BJP. Sena is BJP's biggest ally.

The two parties which walked out of NDA are set to impact politics in their respective states. LJP leader Chirag Paswan said, "As far as the Bihar by-election is concerned, NDA doesn't have to worry (RJD retained Araria). But the two losses in UP, especially Gorakhpur, being the home turf of the Chief Minister of the state, is a cause for concern." "NDA, specifically BJP, needs to rework strategy, more so when you have a huge majority, both in UP and at the Centre."

LJP insiders, however, said Paswan senior has started weighing options as his cadres in Bihar are reluctant to be seen in close association with BJP because of its "anti-Dalit, anti-minority" image and posturing. "There's resentment among workers. The party is being snubbed. We will be weighing the mood of voters before taking a final call on whether or not to go with NDA in 2019," said a leader. The LJP leadership is also wary of increasing sympathy for RJD in Bihar and it may add to its reasons for leaving NDA.

NDA has about 47 constituents, and 12 of them have representation in the Lok Sabha. But the grouping does not have a convenor — a crucial post that George Fernandes had held during the Vajpayee era. And Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are not the only trouble states. Many coalition partners feel there is a communication breakdown. A senior leader said there has never been an initiative in the last four years to arrange a meeting of alliance partners to form a steering committee to decide issues.

In Kerala, Bharath Dharma Jan Sena (BDJS) has declared that it will not work with BJP. BJDS is the political wing of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), the socio-cultural organisation of the Ezhava community, which has a sizeable population in Kerala. Another small ally of BJP in Kerala, Janathipathya Rashtreeya Sabha, is also sulking.

On the day Nitish spoke up, ruling BJP in UP also faced coalition troubles when senior Cabinet Minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) president Om Prakash Rajbhar accused it of being "drunk on power and losing its mental balance." He said BJP is not following coalition dharma. "We are being treated as second-rate citizens," he said. He predicted bad days for the party. "The government is focusing only on temples and doing nothing for the poor, backwards, Dalits and farmers," he said.

(With inputs form Manan Kumar)