Hafiz Saeed sentencing: Genuine crackdown on terror or yet another eyewash by Pakistan?

A Pakistan anti-terror court on Friday sentenced 26/11 mastermind and UN-designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed to 31 years in prison in two cases of terror financing. The court also ordered his assets to be seized and imposed a fine of Rs 3.4 lakh on the Lashkar-e-Taiba founder. Saeed, who has a $10mn bounty on him by the US, is already facing 36 years of jail in five terror financing cases, but Friday’s ruling has been one of the strongest against him. As usual, the timing of the ruling raises suspicion.

Known to be close to the Pakistan establishment, Saeed has spent years in and out of detention in varying forms, often under house arrest and under tight security. On several occasions, he has been detained in the face of international pressure but with no specific charges against him. Saeed roams freely across Pakistan, delivering incendiary speeches against India. The US House Foreign Affairs Committee noted that Saeed has been arrested and released eight times since 2001.

READ | Pakistan anti-terrorism court sentences Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed to 31 years in jail

A timeline of Saeed’s arrests and convictions

Saeed was arrested in 2019, just before Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s visit to the US. Again, in February 2020, a Pakistan court sentenced him to 11 years in prison in two terror financing cases. This ruling came just four days before the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meeting to assess action taken by Islamabad against terror financing and money laundering. Pakistan has been in FATF’s Grey List since June 2018.

In November and December of 2020, Saeed was given a jail term of 25 years in three more terror financing cases. However, critics have dismissed such rulings as mere optics and questioned Pakistan’s intent in curbing terror. So what factors could have influenced the latest ruling against Saeed?

Posturing for global aid?

The economy of Pakistan is in such a mess that it has fuelled political instability in the country. Imran Khan faces a no-confidence motion by a united Opposition amid reports of rift between him and some powerful military figures. Inflation has peaked, currency has plunged, growth rate has slowed, and debt almost doubled in less than four years.

In such a situation, with the ruling against Saeed, Pakistan may try to show that it is tough on terror, and thus, seek global aid to boost its ravaged economy. It might also signal an outreach to India, a country that has now become a sought-after “neutral power” amid the global economic imbalance fuelled by the Russia-Ukraine war.

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A loyal punching bag

Saeed has been one of ISI’s most trusted lieutenants to carry out terror activities in India. So much so, that he has been the proverbial punching bag for the country’s military whenever it is under any kind of pressure.

“The ISI and Hafiz Saeed have two things in common – terrorism and hate for India. They have an intimate connection, and the ISI uses Hafiz as a punching bag to show the international community that it is strict on terror. In fact, Hafiz is their best asset and a remote-controlled tool for all acts of terror – worldwide, and particularly in India,” says defence expert Shailendra Singh.

The FATF factor

Pakistan has been on the FATF Grey List for almost four years now. In fact, last month, the global terror watchdog further extended the ban on Pakistan, as the country failed to complete the conditions to come out of the list. Several experts believe Pakistan will be under heightened monitoring by the FATF even if it comes out of the list in future.

Now, with the ruling against Saeed, Pakistan may try to signal a positive intent to the FATF and argue against its inclusion in the Grey List.

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