From F-35s to Fairways: Will Trump's second term be defined by arms deals and Arabian villas?

According to Al-MONITOR, Donald Trump’s first international trip as U.S. President in 2017 started with a visit to Saudi Arabia, where he finalized a significant $110 billion arms deal with the kingdom. If he returns for a second term, his foreign policy is expected to once again focus on building strong relationships with Gulf nations.

Donald Trump has a long history of making deals in the Gulf region, including opening luxury hotels and selling advanced fighter jets. One of his major achievements was overseeing the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements marked a historic moment by normalizing relations between Israel and countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.

Since leaving office, Donald Trump, along with his family and associates, has remained active in the Gulf region, working on new deals and building relationships. Their efforts are now opening opportunities in areas like defense, technology, artificial intelligence, and more, setting the stage for future developments.

Gulf countries that are hoping for Donald Trump to return to power are familiar with his deal-focused approach to foreign policy. It seems that some in the region are already taking steps to align with this style of doing business.

On November 12, Qatar’s $510 billion sovereign wealth fund appointed a new CEO, choosing the former chief investment officer of its Americas division. This move could suggest that Qatar is focusing on strengthening its ties with the United States, especially with the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power and creating new opportunities.

A second term for Donald Trump also brings potential risks for the economies of GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries. Additionally, the Middle East has undergone significant changes since his first time as president.

It is uncertain how Trump will handle a region already in turmoil without worsening the situation, especially with other challenges looming.

For example, Trump’s proposed universal tariff plans could have significant consequences, and there’s also the possibility of the US competing with OPEC in the energy market.

Trump might increase pressure on regional capitals to pick a side in the US-China conflict, which could create divisions.

Despite everything, the president-elect values his strong personal connections with local leaders and has shared some key goals, like growing the Abraham Accords.Achieving a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be a major success for Trump. However, making such a deal happen won’t be easy due to several challenges and complexities involved.

In a July interview with Bloomberg, Trump emphasized that maintaining strong ties with Saudi Arabia would be a key priority and mentioned his positive relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Trump also stated that he would "always protect" Saudi Arabia and criticized Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama for damaging relations with Riyadh, which he believes has driven the country closer to Beijing.

Trump’s financial connections to the region are likely to remain under scrutiny. In July 2023, the nonprofit group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington reported that Trump earned at least $9.6 million from the Middle East during his presidency. This included money from officials from the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia who used his hotels and properties.

When Trump returns to power and works to reverse Biden’s policies, he will also need to take into account the achievements of the outgoing administration in the Gulf. These include important agreements in areas like aerospace, trade partnerships, artificial intelligence, and clean energy, which have strengthened cooperation in the region.Even though these deals were shaped by Biden, there are good reasons to keep building on them.

For example, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), supported by Biden, has been promoted as a rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Another area to watch is the growing tech partnership between the US and the UAE. Recently, Microsoft made a $1.5 billion investment in G42, an Emirati company specializing in artificial intelligence, which could strengthen collaboration in technology and innovation between the two countries.

Investments in Property

During the 2024 US election period, the Trump Organization signed three new real estate agreements in partnership with Saudi developer Dar Global. There’s a possibility of more deals in the future.

The first project announced was a $500 million hotel and golf resort in Oman. It was revealed in June and is set to open in December 2028.

In July, plans were announced to build Trump Towers in Jeddah and Dubai. Around the same time, Eric Trump shared with the Financial Times that the family’s real estate and hospitality business aims to expand with more deals in the Middle East.

Back in 2017, Trump partnered with Dubai real estate mogul Hussain Sajwani, the founder of Damac Properties, to open a Trump golf club in Dubai.In the same year, Trump claimed he had turned down a $2 billion deal with Damac to avoid any conflicts of interest while serving as president.

However, these recent deals might face delays or even be canceled, similar to what happened with the Trump Tower project planned for Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah, which was called off in 2011.

Renewed F-35 Deal?

At the end of Trump’s first term, he approved a $23 billion agreement to sell F-35 fighter jets and armed drones to the UAE. This deal, which was linked to the Abraham Accords, would have made the UAE the first Arab country to own these advanced warplanes.In 2021, Abu Dhabi paused the negotiations, objecting to the conditions set by the Biden administration for accessing the technology.

In September 2024, Reuters reported that the UAE might restart talks to buy F-35 fighter jets if Trump was re-elected. The information came from unnamed sources.

A few days later, a senior UAE official denied the report and told Reuters that the country had no plans to restart F-35 negotiations, no matter who won the election.

The Kushner Link

Affinity Partners, a private equity firm started in 2021 by Jared Kushner, former adviser and son-in-law of Donald Trump, has been in the spotlight since its launch. In July 2024, the firm took a significant step by purchasing a $128.5 million stake in Phoenix Holdings, an Israeli financial services company. This move could pave the way for more regional investments in the years ahead.

Kushner's firm faced criticism after a 2022 report by the New York Times revealed that Affinity Partners had secured $2 billion in funding from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF).

The investment came just months after Kushner left the White House, where he had worked closely with Gulf nations. This raised concerns that it might be a favor in return for past actions, leading to investigations by Democratic lawmakers.

Criticism of Kushner is likely to continue, but Trump’s support could help shield him from the backlash as he seeks new investment opportunities.

Affinity Partners has also invested in other companies in the Middle East, in addition to Phoenix Holdings. These include the Shlomo Group, a large Israeli business group, and the parent company of Dubizzle, a popular online classifieds platform based in Dubai.

In April 2024, it was reported that Affinity Partners, along with Mubadala, a wealth fund from Abu Dhabi, had invested in Zamp, a company that operates restaurants in Brazil.

Golf Standoff

While Trump is not directly involved in the delayed merger between Saudi-backed LIV Golf and the PGA Tour, his election has led to speculation that he might play a role in finalizing the deal.

The PGA Tour is a professional golf organization that hosts and manages many of the top golf tournaments in the world. It serves as the main tour for professional male golfers in the United States and is known for events like the Players Championship and the FedEx Cup.

The planned merger between the two organizers, announced in June 2023, shocked the golf community and aimed to put an end to the intense rivalry between them.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) funded LIV Golf’s quick growth, making the merger possible and establishing Saudi Arabia as a major player in the global golf industry.

Trump has close connections to LIV Golf, which has been hosting tournaments at his golf courses since it started in 2022.
The president-elect claimed he could resolve the merger issue in just 15 minutes. Golf star Rory McIlroy supported this idea during a press briefing on November 6, saying he believed Trump could help finalize the deal.

It’s unclear how Trump might accomplish this, but one challenge to the merger is U.S. antitrust laws. These rules are designed to prevent unfair competition, and the new administration could potentially have an impact on how they are applied in this case.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com) 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)