Kim Jong-il will create crisis, China will ‘step in and solve it’

HONG KONG: Gordon G Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On The World, has for long been warning the world about North Korea’s nuclear programme, and of the folly of “looking the other way”.

Today, alarm bells are jangling all across East Asia as the Kim Jong-il regime gears up to test its most advanced missile yet, the Taepodong-2. Yet, with the region on edge, Chang argues that the US should not prevent North Korea from testing now. In this telephonic interview from his home in New Jersey, he explains why. 

On what grounds do you say that the US should not prevent North Korea from testing its missile?

I think that essentially the US and the rest of the world has tried to ignore North Korean developments — both the nuclear programme and the missiles. We take the view that if they don’t test, they’re not really developing. But they are developing.

One thing that a test will do is to force us to deal with some important critical issues. The other thing is that we’re going to find out a lot more from a test about the ability of the programme. We always speculate about whether they can do this or do that. We can learn as much from the test as the North Koreans can. The fact is we’ve just been kidding ourselves about North Korea. It’s time we stopped doing that now. We know that over time, they are going about it… Unfortunately, we’re not dealing with this in a responsible manner. 

Is it because the US foreign policy is distracted by the war in Iraq and the standoff with Iran?

That’s a large part of it. But the Iraq war has been there only since 2003. We’ve been ignoring Korea since the 1950s. We’ve always been distracted by something else. It’s also a failure in foreign policy of democracy. Democracies are not very good at consistently keeping focus. I’m not arguing against democracies, of course, but our form of government has a failing. We need to correct that.

In your estimation, does N Korea have the capability to deliver on its threat to the US or is it just bluster?

I think North Korea has nuclear weapons. I think they have the capability to put a missile on the continental United States. I don’t think they have mastered the technique of shrinking their weapons and putting them on missiles. But that’s just a matter of time. In 5-7 years, they’ll be able to do that.

In your view, what is the significance of the timing of this test?

I think we tend to focus on North Korea from our perspective. We think they’re trying to create a provocation to get our attention. I’m not sure that’s the case. I think that a large part of the reason they’re testing now is for their internal domestic political reasons. Reasons of regime politics.

Is Kim Jong-il trying to consolidate power?

Maybe that — or maybe he’s trying to boost the morale of the regime. We cannot discount domestic politics.

Where does China figure in all this? Is it losing control over North Korea?

It’s very possible that China and North Korea are in on this together. And essentially what they’re doing is this: Kim Jong-il will create a crisis, and China will ‘step in and solve it’.

You think it’s a bit of a charade?

You can’t discount the possibility that it is a very big charade. Over the long term, China is trying to use North Korea to keep Japan and the US off balance. But for the China too, it’s a losing game. Because over the long term, China is losing control over North Korea.

What is the future of the North Korean nuclear talks?

The nuclear talks are essentially dead. The best one can say is that they’re in deep freeze. The US seems content to let that be, but that’s a policy of folly.

So, what’s to be done?

I think we should be pushing the North Koreans, rather than them pushing us.