King awaits next move on Nepal's future

KATHMANDU:  Nepal's humbled King Gyanendra could block moves to rein his authority despite being pressured to recall parliament after weeks of street protests as a struggle for power among factions takes shape, analysts said.

Nepal's legislators head back to work Friday after a four-year break promising to take back power for the people, but their ability to carry out radical reform remains in doubt. 

 The Himalayan nation is then set for months of legal and political battles for power between implacable foes ranging from Maoists and republicans to royalists set to fight over the future of the country's political system.   

"Clearly some things are very hazy," said professor S.M. Habibullah, head of political science at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan University. "This is very, very much a new thing. Real democracy hasn't started yet." 

Politicians have vowed to call elections for an assembly to reframe the nation's 1990 constitution to take away power from the king but there is no legal basis for them to do so. 

The preamble to the 1990 document enshrines the king as the dominant figure in the country -- along with the country's borders, human rights and multi-party democracy -- and that cannot be changed legally, say constitutional experts.

Nothing has yet changed under the law to stop the king from using his powers to snatch back power as he did in February 2005 when he sacked the government and asserted total rule.   

But any such move is likely to spark even worse protests than was seen on the streets over 19 days in April when protesters repeatedly clashed with security forces. 

Legislators are faced with the prospect of facing challenges to their moves by pro-royalist politicians in the Supreme Court -- where the chief justice is approved by the monarch -- or the potential for a nervous king to assert his role as commander-in-chief and take back power.   

The final option, say experts, is to ignore the constitution altogether and for politicians to rule in the name of the people who took to the streets in their tens of thousands leaving at least 15 dead behind as they voiced their demands for a watered-down monarchy or even a republic.   

Senior Nepali lawyers said the "people's mandate" could be enough to sweep away the old rules and allow the politicians to embark upon their ambitious plans for change. 

 "I believe for some time we have to forget the constitution of 1990... the people are sovereign and sovereign people can do anything," Nepal's former attorney-general Mahadeo Prasad Yadav told AFP.   

Legislators may try to incorporate Maoists into a joint interim government before starting the groundwork for a constituent assembly, said Sindhunath Pyakurel, a former president of the Nepal Bar Association.   

"In general, the king has to approve the bills passed by parliament but now the decision makers are the people. So there is no need for approval by the king," Pyakurel said. 

"The new constitution formed under the constituent assembly elections will decide the fate of the monarchy." 

Even the king's announcement Monday to allow the reforming of parliament was not allowed under the constitution. He has only the powers to dissolve parliament -- and not reinstate it again, said experts. 

The parliament was dissolved in 2002 because of a wrangle over emergency powers to tackle a Maoist insurgency that started in 1996. It still had two years left to run.

The session on Friday could include a push for elections for a constituent assembly, announce a ceasefire against the Maoists - who have waged a decade-long insurgency - and order the release of any remaining political prisoners held during the 14-month period of the king's outright rule.