WORLD
The rich Middle-Eastern kingdom is worried the US has made a foreign policy mistake by appearing to give up support for Mubarak too easily, according to diplomats.
Saudi Arabia is more concerned about losing allies to counter its regional adversary Iran than with the risk that upheavals sweeping Tunisia and Egypt might spread to the kingdom, diplomats and analysts say.
Flush with petrodollars, the world's top oil exporter can splash out to alleviate any social tensions due to unemployment — around 10 percent of the Saudi work force is jobless — and quell any unrest in the absolute monarchy, they say.
But some believe the Saudi rulers would be alarmed if the United States jettisons Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who, like successive Saudi monarchs, has been a longtime US ally since taking power three decades ago.
"The Saudis... are worried that the US has made a foreign policy mistake by appearing to give up support for Mubarak too easily," said Simon Henderson, a Washington-based Saudi watcher.
For the moment, Mubarak remains in place. Protesters who have paralysed Egypt and extracted concessions unimaginable two weeks ago — among them a Mubarak pledge not run again for president in September elections and the sacking of his cabinet — have yet to achieve their core demand that he go now.
Yet the Saudis may feel that a weakened Mubarak on his way out is no longer an effective bulwark against Shi'ite Iran. They more than share US fears that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons — a charge Tehran denies.
"Cut off the head of the snake," the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, quoted King Abdullah as advising US General David Petraeus in April 2008, according to a US cable released by WikiLeaks in November, referring to Iran.
The kingdom, custodian of Islam's holiest sites, sees itself as a bastion of Sunni Islam, so it is also deeply concerned about wider Shi'ite influence in the region having watched the 2003 US-led invasion produce a Shi'ite-led government in Iraq.
The Saudis fret that the balance could tilt further if Mubarak's impending exit leads to prolonged uncertainty in Arab heavyweight Egypt, a staunch foe of Iran.
"There will be a vacuum. Egypt was a very important element for Middle Eastern stability. Saudi Arabia will have to carry the burden if there is instability or a vacuum on the political side," said Turad al-Amry, a Saudi political analyst.
"What is the direction of the new regime and new government (in Egypt) and how fast can it perform business?" he asked.
SPACE FOR RIVALS
Egypt, shaken by anti-Mubarak protests for the past 13 days, will in any case be too focused on its internal crisis to bolster Saudi efforts to counter Iran's sway, analysts say.
Diplomats said Riyadh also worries that a diplomatic void left by a
preoccupied Egypt will give openings to countries such as Turkey and Qatar, a smaller Gulf rival of Saudi Arabia, which both seek bigger regional roles and are on good terms with Iran.
"Saudi influence will probably diminish, while others such as Qatar and Turkey who do not want an isolation of Iran like the Saudis will play a bigger role," said a Gulf-based diplomat.
Riyadh will be hard-pressed to find Arab allies to replace Egypt in a conservative Sunni axis wary of Iran, analysts say. Iraq and Syria already have strong ties with Tehran.
That might make Riyadh keener to ensure stability in Jordan, a Sunni monarchy also hit by street protests. "The Saudis could pump more money into Jordan," said U.S. analyst Barak Barfi.
Egypt's upheaval comes at an awkward time for the Saudi royal family. King Abdullah is about 87 and went abroad for medical treatment in December. Crown Prince Sultan, his slightly younger brother, is also ailing. Another brother, Interior Minister Prince Nayef, is a possible candidate for future king.
Eventually the throne will have to pass to a new generation of Saudi princes. Although the king has set up a royal council to regulate succession, it is not clear how that will work.
All this makes it difficult for the ageing Saudi leadership to deal with any change in Egypt, diplomats say.
A week ago, King Abdullah became one of the few Arab leaders to voice open support for Mubarak. He also gave refuge in the kingdom to ousted Tunisian leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.
The king's instinctive support for the embattled Egyptian leader revealed the extent to which Saudi foreign policy depends on long-tested personal ties. Sultan, Nayef and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal have also known Mubarak for decades.
For these stalwarts of a once-static Arab order, US calls for Mubarak to cede "change now" awaken memories of American demands for reform in Iran before the shah was toppled in 1979.
"It is evident that the US is abandoning Mubarak," said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut. "His regime has expired."
This was sending shock waves to Saudi Arabia, a strategic ally of the United States since 1945, he said.
"If the US pushes for change in Egypt, nervous al-Saud royals will feel pressure coming their way very soon."
DNA TV Show: Why Gautam Adani charged with bribery and fraud in US
IND vs AUS: Records Virat Kohli can break during Border-Gavaskar Trophy
Diljit Dosanjh fans get angry over Ananya Panday's birthday post for her grandmother, here's why
Reddit suffers outage with ‘upstream connect error’ message, says 'currently investigating...'
Border-Gavaskar Trophy: How has Jasprit Bumrah fared in Tests in Australia?
Delhi records coldest night of the season, temp drops to...
Crossing the Line: Ukraine's Use of Storm Shadow Missiles and the Escalation of Conflict
When Malaika Arora talked about the controversial ‘instant pleasure’ ad, it was for…
This is the world’s most expensive shopping street, not Fifth Avenue, New Bond Street, it is...
Big setback for Gautam Adani, Kenya cancels Rs 6216 crore deal with Adani Group due to...
Viral video: Man’s jugaad to stay warm in winter will leave you SHOCKED, watch here
Hinduja Group firm gets key approval for acquisition of Anil Ambani's debt-ridden Reliance Capital
Viral video: Middle-Class man lives dream of having tea at Taj Hotel, netizens applauds
Shloka Mehta looks stunning in white floral kurta as she clicked with Akash Ambani, it costs Rs....
Who is Sagar Adani, Gautam Adani's nephew, accused of bribery, fraud charges in US?
PayPal down: Several users face issue while logging into accounts, say 'no one could...'
IND vs AUS: Jasprit Bumrah, Pat Cummins eye historic captaincy milestone in Perth Test
BGT 2024, Ind vs Aus: Can Shubhman Gill be the new Cheteshwar Pujara? Is he really ready?
The Ultimate Guide to Luxury Gifting: Discover Heirloom Pashmina by Pashmina.com
Effortless Relocations: The Perks Of Professional Removalists In Melbourne
Watch: Pakistan fan with 'Imran Khan' poster asked to leave Hobart stadium in Australia
International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu for...
What is demisexuality? Everything you need to know about this lesser-known sexual orientation
WATCH: World’s shortest woman meets world’s tallest woman, video goes viral
IND vs AUS 1st Test: Predicted playing XIs, Perth weather forecast and pitch report
IND vs AUS: When will Rohit Sharma join India squad? Check latest update
'Scam 2024': Diljit Dosanjh lookalike pranks people on Pune streets, video goes viral
Delhi Air Pollution: Centre announces staggered work timings for govt employees; check details
Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Jio loses nearly 80 lakh subscribers in just 30 days, BSNL adds...
IND vs AUS, 1st Test Dream11 prediction: Fantasy cricket tips for India vs Australia match
This country has most expensive passport in world, not US, UK, UAE, it costs Rs...
Amitabh Bachchan opens up on Aishwarya Rai-Abhishek Bachchan divorce rumours
Amid rising air pollution, Delhi-NCR's crematorium records cleanest air; check AQI here
Revolutionising Medical Imaging: Venudhar Rao Hajari’s impact on healthcare technology
Abhishek Gupta and Onevision Media: Scaling brands on social media
Video shows Korean girl eating jalebi for first time, her reaction to Indian sweet goes viral
Cristiano Ronaldo confirms THIS YouTube star as his next guest, says, 'Will break Internet'
Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP releases first list of 11 candidates for 2025 polls
Adani Group's FIRST REACTION after US indicts Gautam Adani in alleged bribery case
Instagram introduces new feature, know how to reset app's algorithm, change your feed
No mention of Aaradhya Bachchan in Amitabh Bachchan's post on birthdays, it happened recently
Oppo Find X8 and X8 Pro launched in India, check specifications, price, other details
Charges against Gautam Adani: BJP's scathing attack on Congress, questions timing of development
Jasprit Bumrah's BIG statement on taking up Perth test captaincy, says, 'tactically better...'
Blackout on breaks: Company imposes no-sick-leave policy until 2025
Drug-laden terrorists on India's western, northern frontiers
Mohammad Shami trolls Sanjay Manjrekar over IPL auction bid prediction, says, 'Baba ki...'
IND vs AUS Test: When and where to watch 1st match of Border-Gavaskar trophy, know details here
CAQM amends Grap Stages III, IV, enforces stricter measures in Delhi-NCR amid air pollution woes
Malayalam actor Meghanathan passes away at 60 after suffering from...
Adani Green Energy's FIRST reaction after US indicts Gautam Adani in alleged bribery case
'Keep me out of...': Pakistani Instagram star Mathira on MMS leak controversy
Delhi Air Pollution: AQI marginally improves from 'severe' to 'very poor' category
Meet actress who worked with Alia Bhatt, was asked to 'compromise', connected to Aishwarya Rai by..
Aishwarya Rai’s remark on Amitabh Bachchan’s ‘habits’ goes viral amid divorce rumours with Abhishek
Rekha's BOLD statement about Amitabh Bachchan goes viral, 'why hurt...'
Meet man, IITian who built Rs 5493 crore firm, has this Mukesh Ambani connection, he is from...
Shillong Teer Results TODAY November 21, 2024 Live Updates: Check winning numbers here
‘I didn’t have time to…’: When AR Rahman revealed having ‘agreement’ before marriage to Saira Banu
Amitabh Bachchan praises Abhishek Bachchan's new film, netizens ask 'kash ye Aishwarya...'
Viral video: Woman's sizzling belly dance to 'Namak' impresses internet, watch
Hardik Pandya banned, Mumbai Indians captain to miss first match of IPL 2025 due to...
Meet man who studied at IIM, IIT, then built Rs 1160000000 company, got inspired by…
Meet woman, who quit as dentist for UPSC exam, became IAS officer with AIR...