Will Iran-Israel crisis escalate into a war?

On 01st April 2024, when Israeli Defence Forces attacked a building in the Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, Syria, no one knew that the situation would escalate to the extent that both countries would engage fiercely. The strike was so accurate that it resulted in the killing of seven of the senior Iranian military officers including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi & his deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haji-Rahimi. Both of them were part of the Iranian Quds Force and were instrumental in various support activities with the Bashar-al Assad-controlled Syrian government.

Iranian response was much speculated and finally, after 13 days, Iran launched a full-fledged strike over Israel using drones, Cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles. As per an estimate, over 300 such projectiles were fired over Israel which were aimed at strategic military installations. Although Israel claimed that all these projectiles were neutralized using its Iron Dome and the Israeli Air Force denied any damage, there were conflicting stories in the media.  

Israel’s counter-reaction came on 19th April when it targeted two major Air bases of Iran using missiles and this action has created further tensions all over the Middle East. The oil prices have soared and there is a constant threat of an escalation of the situation as America moved its warships into the Mediterranean Sea earlier this year. Let’s analyze the situation in five easy points. 

Can Israel handle a three-pronged war? 
Israel is already engaged in a two-pronged war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in the north. It is not only facing constant pressure on its economy but, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing serious criticism on his home turf too, especially from the orthodox Jewish community. If it does not de-escalate the situation quickly, the situation may become worse for the holy land. Israel’s limited response to the Iranian strike on 19th April 2024 also reflects their outlook towards de-escalation. Although Israel has been handling all the attacks very well, but every defense system has its limitations especially when Iran has several thousands of missiles and drones in its arsenal. 

The Iranian Dilemma 
Iran is in a dilemma. On one hand, it has to prove to the rest of the world that it is a power that no one can under-estimate, it has to balance out the things with the US and Israel on the other hand too. Another dilemma is with respect to its dwindling economy too. With China and Russia now siding with it, Tehran wants to ensure that it becomes part of the global economy like earlier. With US sanctions on Iranian oil and its trade, it has to somehow break free and project itself as an unavoidable player in the Middle Eastern turf. Under such circumstances, it will always try to keep things limited and avoid a full-scale escalation. 

Role of America & the Islamic world  
As of now the role of America and the Islamic world is not clear. Principally, America has been supporting Israel wholeheartedly but at the same time, it cannot antagonize its old Arabian friends too. At the same time, while the Arab countries are ready to strike a peaceful deal with Israel, they have bad memories of major wars with Israel in 1948, 1967, and 1973. No one has opened their cards yet, but one thing is sure no one wants an escalation of the situation as it will have cascading effects on their economies too. There is another aspect to this story. Both Iran and America are archrivals and America being the old-time ally of Israel, American bases all over the Middle East are under constant Iranian threat too. The US would never like to enter into an unwanted war and hence it is already making all possible efforts to de-escalate the situation. 

Buffer states between the two countries 
Both Iran and Israel are located far off from each other with Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia as buffer states between them. In case a conflict starts, it will have to pass through these buffer states. Under such circumstances, if the situation escalates, the conflict will be dependent upon the use of Medium Range Ballistic Missiles, Drones, and of Air Force which will always have resource limitations for both countries. These war machines are expensive and are produced in limited numbers. Moreover, they are strategic and no country would ever like to exhaust them on such long-distance attacks. This further puts down the possibility of a full-scale escalation. 

International Pressure& threat to global economy 
The global economy is bleeding badly and even a few of the developed economies are expecting negative GDP growth. Oil prices affect the economy of nearly every country in the world and under such circumstances, no country will ever like the situation to go out of hand. Everyone knows that with each passing day of conflict, oil prices will keep inching ahead and so as the pressure on their economies. Both Israel and Iran are already under pressure from both oil-producing nations and oil-buying nations to quickly de-escalate the situation so that normalcy can prevail. 

The situation in the Middle East is alarming but is still well within the hands. While no one knows as to when the balloon may go up, the current speculations point out that neither Israel nor Iran are in a position to handle a full-scale war. At the same time, global powers are afraid of a cascading effect on their economies and they too are making all-out efforts to de-escalate the situation.