In early-May, US officials blamed Hamas for delaying the negotiations. At that time, Israel made a significant concession by dropping its demand to maintain checkpoints inside Gaza.
For weeks, the White House has remained hopeful about securing a ceasefire agreement that would lead to the release of hostages held in Gaza. President Biden first introduced the basic plan for this deal back in July. Since then, numerous American officials have been visiting the region, trying to persuade both Israel and Hamas to come to an agreement. Despite these efforts, no deal has been finalized.
In early-May, US officials blamed Hamas for delaying the negotiations. At that time, Israel made a significant concession by dropping its demand to maintain checkpoints inside Gaza. However, by the beginning of last month, Hamas had softened its stance, made some compromises and signalled a willingness to move forward. Now, Washington sees Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as the main obstacle in reaching an agreement.
When Everything Falls into Place
This is a good moment for Hamas to negotiate. Although the group still has some military capability, it has been significantly weakened. Many of Hamas’s fighters and top commanders have been eliminated and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, is now isolated from other leaders of the group. There are reports that frustration with Hamas is growing among the people in Gaza. The group has even agreed to give up control over civilian governance in Gaza, indicating its readiness to making concessions.
Hamas officials, upset by Israel’s recent killing of a political leader and negotiator, have said they will not take part in the new talks that have started. However, American officials believe this stance will change and Hamas seems open to meeting the Qatari and Egyptian mediators.
Israel seems to have reached the limit of what it can achieve through military action. Almost all of Gaza has been hit by Israeli bombs and the military is now engaged in a kind of Whac-a-Mole operation—a situation where they repeatedly try to eliminate targets that quickly reappear elsewhere—trying to target Hamas fighters who can easily blend in with the local population.
American officials believe that Israel is gaining less from its ongoing military actions. The remaining Hamas fighters are more difficult to target, while Palestinian civilians, already suffering from the war, are facing even greater hardships. According to the local health ministry, 40,005 Gazans, including both civilians and fighters, have already lost their lives.
Israeli defence officials admit that Netanyahu’s goal of completely eliminating Hamas is not achievable. They believe that diplomacy is the only way to securing the return of around 115 hostages, both living and dead, who are still being held in Gaza. While bold military operations have rescued seven hostages, negotiations have successfully freed over 100. The rest of hostages in Gaza seem to be inaccessible for Israeli commandos as many of them are, possibly, hidden deep inside tunnels and used as human shields to protect Hamas leaders.
Reasons for the Delay
Netanyahu appears unwilling to agree to a permanent ceasefire at this time. American officials had hoped he would finalize a deal after his speech to Congress last month. However, according to The New York Times, Netanyahu has introduced new conditions for a ceasefire. He wants Israel to maintain control of Gaza’s southern border and has partially reinstated demands to screen Palestinians for weapons before they can return to their homes in the north—conditions that negotiators thought Israel had already given up.
One reason could be political. With centrists leaving the government, a ceasefire deal may risk breaking up Netanyahu’s Right-wing coalition. When his defence minister, Gallant, a strong supporter within his party, admitted that “total victory” was not realistic, Netanyahu harshly criticized him, accusing him of promoting an “anti-Israel” view. Gallant made this bold statement to lawmakers during a private security briefing on Monday (August 12).
Even if Netanyahu’s coalition stays intact, ending the war would likely increase pressure for new elections. After the security failures revealed by the October 7, 2023, attack, it is difficult to see Israeli voters bringing Netanyahu back to power. Netanyahu had dissolved his six-member war Cabinet, according to reports on June 17. This decision followed Benny Gantz, the only centrist in the group, leaving the Cabinet a week earlier.
Delaying the ceasefire could give Israeli forces a chance to kill Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7 attack, which would be a significant win for Netanyahu and may help restore his image. If the talks continue for a long time, there is also a possibility that Donald Trump could return to the White House and shift the US position to be more in line with Netanyahu’s.
The Price of the Delay
This approach is risky. So far, at least 40 hostages have died in captivity and there are concerns about how much longer the remaining hostages can survive. Quickly reaching a deal may also offer a small chance that Iran and Hezbollah will avoid retaliating for Israel’s recent assassinations.
Hamas started the conflict on October 7 by attacking Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking hostages to Gaza. When a deal was almost reached, Hamas refused it. Even if Netanyahu agrees to a deal later, Hamas may still back out.
American officials think that Hamas may be willing to give up some power in exchange of a ceasefire and, importantly, a chance to create a Palestinian state. If Netanyahu is not ready to end the conflict, Israel could miss the chance to stop the fighting and some hostages may never return home. This would only deepen the tragedy of the war.
Further Developments
At his New Jersey golf club, Trump expressed his support for Israel’s efforts in its war on terror. He emphasised that he had requested Netanyahu to end the conflict quickly. Trump also claimed that Kamala Harris supported an arms embargo on Israel, saying that, if she won, “Israel would be gone”. He compared Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, who is Jewish, to a Palestinian.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)
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