Amid the rising coronavirus cases in China, Japan, South Korea, the US and some other countries, many are concerned that whether India is also heading towards COVID 4th wave in the near future.
The matter grabbed headlines after Omicron BF.7 variant, which is largely responsible for wreaking havoc in China, has also been found in India. Talking about the issue, senior IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, who was behind the IIT sutra covid model, said that the ‘short-term future does not look good’ but ‘there is no cause for alarm in India’.
Reason behind COVID-19 surge in China despite vaccination?
According to Agrawal said, the number of people with the natural immunity immune (immunity acquired via the previous infection) was less than 5% in October-end and less than 20% in November-end. He added that currently less than 60% people in China have natural immunity.
Agrawal warned that the short-term future looks gloomy as COVID-19 will infect the remaining Chinese people and the country will record more cases in the coming days. Agrawal noted that the COVID-19 surge will continue in China until over 90% population in the country gets infected with coronavirus.
How long will the COVID-19 mayhem continue?
Agrawal said that the situation will improve when nearly entire population acquires natural immunity. He added that detailed analysis of Omicron wave in India and other countries had revealed that natural immunity is the best protection against infection by any COVID-19 variant.
According to Agrawal, the zero-Covid policy adopted by China did not allow the development of natural immunity in the people. Agrawal added that this is the worst time for China as not many people have natural immunity and the government is imposing lesser restrictions on movements.
ill India see COVID-19 4th wave?
Agrawal asserted that Indians should not worry at all because over 98% Indian population has natural immunity.
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