BJP blames it on others for rout in LS elections

The various analyses put forth by the BJP leadership to explain the defeat in the general elections is not cutting much ice within the party.

“They are attributing it to this reason or that — all external factors. But they are not talking about the real factors — the shortcomings in the party and their own mistakes,” said one leader.

“The fact is they have even lost the urban middle class votes. After delimitation, the number of urban constituencies went up and the party thought it would gain from this. But the Congress won them all,” said a BJP functionary.

The most prevalent explanation, espoused by BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley and seconded by LK Advani, is that the verdict was not so much against the BJP as it was against the third front and the Left front, which were seen as forces disrupting a stable government.

There are other explanations for the party’s rout in metros such as Delhi and Mumbai. In Mumbai, the leadership thinks it’s Raj Thackeray who cut into the BJP-Sena votes and is responsible for the defeat. In Delhi, they blame the BSP for not doing its work properly and ensuring a defeat for the BJP. “So it is all someone else’s fault,” said one.
According to an analyst associated with the sangh parivar, all explanations and justifications from the top leaders have failed to touch on one vital aspect: why has the party steadily lost its voters?

Talking in terms of voting percentages does not reveal this aspect. The party’s peak performance in terms of the number of votes and vote share was in 1998, when 9.43 crore votes were polled by 388 candidates. In 1999, this dipped to 8.66 crore, partly because the party contested 50 fewer seats. But then, the BJP lost a number of its voters in 2004 when its votes fell to 8.64 crore even though the party contested a larger number of seats (364 seats)).

Its worst performance in a decade came in this year’s election when the 433 candidates put up by the  party could muster only about 8.13 crore votes (preliminary estimates).
While the number of voters has increased over the years, the BJP has not only failed to add new voters, it has steadily lost those who had reposed faith in it at one point or the other. The analyses coming from party leaders does not explain this.