DNA Exclusive: Will Nitish Kumar’s latest flip-flop hurt BJP’s 2024 poll prospects?

Bringing the squabbling between his party and the BJP to and end, Nitish Kumar once again made a shift for power, and is set to join hands with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. 

The much-anticipated move by the 71-year-old JD(U) chief came amid his possible fears that that the BJP may dump his party after securing victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and would go it alone in the 2025 Bihar Assembly polls. The JD(U)’s bid to turn up the heat on the BJP can be seen as its pushback against that possibility. 

The decision to exit the NDA and go back to the RJD has left experts speculating about Kumar’s political future and whether the latest political summersault by Kumar will help him fulfill his dream of entering the national arena. 

If Kumar is anywhere vying to emerge as a PM contender against Narendra Modi, a Mahagathbandhan comprising of JD(U), RJD, Congress and smaller caste-based parties provide all the vital ingredients required to take on the NDA -- social engineering, Hindutva, nationalism and calculations. 

Also Read: DNA Exclusive: Time for Nitish Kumar to be decisive once again, but it’s not going to be easy this time

The RJD's Muslim-Yadav base, JD(U)'s support among Kurmis, MBCs and Mahadalits and the pockets of influence of Congress and CPI-ML, make it a formidable alliance, one that could inflict losses on the NDA.

Political commentator Amitabh Tiwari opines that the development will have a huge bearing on the BJP’s electoral prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. 

“Nitish dumping could have a big impact on the next Lok Sabha polls in Bihar where the NDA swept 39 out of 40 seats in 2019. With Lalu, Nitish, Congress, Left joining hands and already exhibited good transfer of votes amongst partners (non -antagonistic vote blocks), BJP could face tough competition and NDA is staring at loss of 10-15 seats in the state,” Tiwari told DNA India. 

On the other hand, political commentator Suvrokama Dutta opines that Kumar’s move will turn out to be a disaster for him, adding that he has “dug his own grave this time”. 

Having back to the Mahagathbandhan, Kumar eyes emerging as the PM face of the anti-BJP opposition, which has so far failed to come under one umbrella owing to the personal ambitions of regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, KCR amogn others. 

However, what comes to the notice that Kumar had dumped the RJD in 2017 amid the corruption charges against Lalu Prasad Yadav and his then  deputy Tejashwi Yadav. Going back to the opposition fold is likely to leave people guessing about Kumar’s motives, given the fact that he has been pushing his anti-corruption plank. 

But experts believe that Kumar’s development card could help dilute the taint of corruption charges against the RJD. That the RJD hold has not slackened on account of the same was evident in the last Assembly polls when, despite the absence of Lalu Prasad, it emerged as the single-largest party.